000 AXPZ20 KNHC 311506 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1358 UTC Sat Mar 31 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between high pressure ridging along the Sierra Madre Oriental and lower pressure associated with the equatorial trough is supporting minimal gale force winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec, where seas are reaching near 13 ft. The minimal gale conditions are expected to continue through tonight. The area of high pressure north of the area will gradually shift eastward over the next 24 hours. This will loosen the pressure gradient and help diminish winds below gale force by Sun morning. In response to the shifting of high pressure, winds over the SW Gulf will veer. This will further diminish winds funneling through the Chivela pass into the Gulf of Tehuantepec and bring an end to this latest gap wind event, with winds diminishing below 20 kt by Sun evening. Please refer to the High Seas Forecast issued by the National Weather Service under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC for more details. This information also is found at the following website: www.hurricanes.gov/marine. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 09.5N85W to 06.5N94W. The ITCZ continues from 06.5N94W to 07N103W to 05N115W to 07N125W to 07N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 06N between 83W and 87W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 10N to 13N between 102W and 124W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Special Features section above for more information on the latest Gulf of Tehuantepec gale force gap wind event. A weak pressure pattern will prevail over the forecast area this weekend. This will maintain mainly light and gentle winds over the open waters off the SW coast of Mexico as well as W of the Baja California Peninsula. Seas of 3 to 6 ft will prevail over these waters. High pressure will start to build closer to the forecast area early next week. This will bring a slight increase to winds, with gentle to moderate NW to N winds developing across the offshore waters W of Baja California. In response to the increase in winds, seas will build to 4 to 7 ft over this area through the middle of the next week. Gulf of California: Mainly light to gentle winds will prevail over much of the gulf the next several days. Winds will increase to gentle to moderate over the northern gulf tonight through Mon night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh to locally strong NE winds are expected through Sun morning, with seas building to as high as 8 ft downstream of the gulf. Gulf of Panama: Fresh to locally strong N winds will prevail across the western part of the gulf tonight through Sun morning. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate offshore flow is generally expected N of 08N, while light to gentle SW winds are forecast S of 08N. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A weak pressure pattern over the forecast area is producing mainly gentle to moderate winds over the forecast waters, except reaching near 20 kt just N if the ITCZ and west of 130W. The weak pressure pattern will prevail through the middle of next week, resulting in winds of 20 kt or less. With winds remaining below 20 kt, and no long period swell events expected, seas will remain less than 8 ft during this period. $$ AL