000 AXPZ20 KNHC 291533 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1348 UTC Thu Mar 29 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1615 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Light to gentle winds and seas of 4 to 7 ft in long period SW swell will prevail through Fri. Then, high pressure building S over the western Gulf of Mexico along the Sierra Madre Oriental will induce a gap wind event beginning Fri evening, with minimal gale conditions possible Fri night through Sat night. Based on wave model guidance, seas are forecast to peak between 12 and 14 ft during this gap wind event around Sat morning. Conditions will improve Sun and Sun night. Please refer to the High Seas Forecast issued by the National Weather Service under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC for more details. This information also is found at the following website: www.hurricanes.gov/marine. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 08N82W to 06N93W. The ITCZ axis continues from 06N93W to 04N101W to 05N111W to beyond 05N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is occurring from 05N to 10N between 114W and 127W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 05N to 07N between 91W and 95W and from 02N to 05N between 100W and 104W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Special Features section above for more information on the developing Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning. High pressure measuring 1032 mb is centered well N of the discussion area near 43N132W. The high ridges SE across the forecast waters to near the Revillagigedo Islands. Moderate to fresh NW winds generally prevail across the central and southern Gulf of California. Winds are light and variable over the remainder of the Gulf. Gentle to moderate NW to N winds will continue across the offshore waters W of Baja California, with 4 to 7 ft seas subsiding to 3 to 6 ft on Fri. Similar marine conditions are expected during the upcoming weekend into early next week, except that surface troughing developing over the baja Peninsula will cause winds over the Gulf of California to become light to gentle Sat night through Sun night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh to locally strong northeast nocturnal winds are expected each night through Sun morning, with seas building to as high as 9 ft downstream of the Gulf tonight and Fri night. Winds will diminish to between moderate and fresh for Sun through Tue. Gulf of Panama: N to NE fresh to locally strong winds near the Azuero Peninsula have diminished. Moderate to fresh N winds will prevail through Fri, then taper to moderate Sat and Sun. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate offshore flow is expected generally N of 07N, while light to gentle SW winds are forecast S of 07N. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A 1032 mb high located well N of the discussion area near 43N132W ridges SE across the forecast waters to near the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures in the vicinity of the ITCZ supports moderate to fresh trades N of the convergence zone and W of 120W. Seas of 7 to 9 ft across the W central waters will subside to less than 8 ft by Fri night as trade wind waves and swell subside in response to weakening high pres to the N. Outside of the the gap wind regions, expect winds of 20 kt or less, and seas less than 8 ft during the upcoming weekend and into early next week. $$ CAM