000 AXPZ20 KNHC 280906 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 906 UTC Wed Mar 28 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 08N81W to 06N89W. The ITCZ axis continues from 06N89W to 03N100W to 04N120W to 05N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is within 45 nm either side of the ITCZ between 90W and 98W. Similar convection is within 240 nm N of the ITCZ between 125W and 138W. Also, scattered moderate convection is from 09N to 11N between 113W and 116W. This convection is associated with a mid to upper level trough which is in the vicinity. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Strong 1038 mb high pressure located N of area near 41N135W extends a ridge SE across the forecast waters to near the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures over Mexico is currently supporting locally fresh NW-N winds W of Baja California, with subsiding seas of 5 to 8 ft. The pressure gradient will relax tonight allowing for winds to diminish slightly. Seas will gradually subside to less than 8 ft across the offshore waters through the day today. Gentle to moderate northwest flow and 3 to 5 ft seas are then expected during the rest of the work week and through the upcoming weekend. Gulf of California: A small area of fresh to locally strong NW winds is across the southern Gulf waters where the pressure gradient is locally tight. These winds, spilling out of the entrance of the Gulf, will diminish by the afternoon. Gulf of Tehuantepec: Light to gentle winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft in long period SW swell will prevail through Fri. Then, high pressure building N of the region will induce a gap wind event beginning late Fri, with minimal gale conditions possible Fri night through Sat night. Based on marine guidance, seas are forecast to build to 12 to 14 ft with this gap wind event by Sat morning. Conditions will improve through the day Sun. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh to locally strong northeast nocturnal winds are expected this week and into the weekend, with seas building to as high as 8 ft downstream of the Gulf. Winds will then be moderate to fresh for Sun. Gulf of Panama: Fresh to locally strong northerly winds are also expected through this morning. Then, moderate to fresh nocturnal north winds will prevail through Fri night, slightly weaker thereafter. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate offshore flow is expected generally N of 07N, while light to gentle SW winds are forecast S of 07N. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Strong 1038 mb high pressure located N of area near 41N135W extends a ridge SE across the forecast waters to near the Revillagigedo Islands. A tight pressure gradient between the ridge and a gale center located W of the forecast region near 26N146W is producing a large area of fresh to strong easterly winds roughly N of 09N W of 137W, and from 09N to 21N between 123W and 137W. Seas across this area are 8 to 11 ft based on altimeter data, with a surrounding area of 8 to 10 ft seas in mixed swell. The gale center will continue to move northward, and remain W of the forecast area over the next 12 to 24 hours. Conditions will gradually improve during the next couple of days, with winds 20 kt or less, and seas less than 8 ft, across most of the area by Fri. Fairly tranquil marine conditions are then expected to persist through the upcoming weekend. $$ Lewitsky