000
AXPZ20 KNHC 252145
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion 
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sun Mar 25 2018 

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is 
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and 
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2145 UTC.
  
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A surface trough extends southwest from the Pacific coast of 
Colombia at 09n79w to across southern Panama to 06N94W where 
scatterometer winds indicated that an ITCZ develops and 
continues southwest to 03N113W, then turns west-northwest to 
beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong 
convection is noted within 90 nm either side of a line from 
06N88W to 02N106W, within 60 nm of 03N120W, and also within 120 
nm either side of a line from 10N121W to 05N126W to 09N140W. 

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A northwest to southeast ridge will meander from 23N116W to 
13N97W for the next several days. Northwest swell, in the form 
of 7 to 9 ft seas, will propagate southeast covering all the 
waters west of the Baja Peninsula by sunrise on Mon, as the 
pressure gradient tightens supporting a strong northwest breeze 
along the Pacific coast of the Baja Norte early tonight. The 
pressure gradient will further tighten on Mon, with fresh to 
locally strong flow forecast across the entire area west of the 
Baja Peninsula on Mon, with seas building to 12 ft along 30N. 
The pressure gradient will relax on Tue, with strong north winds 
only forecast near the southern tip of the Baja Peninsula late 
Tue night. Seas will subside to less than 8 ft throughout on 
Wed.   

Gulf of California:  Gentle to locally moderate northerly winds 
are expected through Mon night. A weakening frontal trough will 
pass through the far northern gulf waters Mon night followed by 
briefly fresh to locally strong NW flow on Tue.

The remainder of the Mexico offshore waters, including the Gulf
of Tehuantepec, should expect gentle to moderate winds and 4 to 
6 ft seas to prevail the next several days. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh to locally strong northeast nocturnal 
winds expected for the next several nights, with seas building to 
9 ft downstream near 11N87W.

Gulf of Panama: Brief strong northerly winds are expected 
tonight and again on Mon night. Fresh nocturnal north winds are 
then expected to resume on Tue night.

Elsewhere, gentle to moderate offshore flow will prevail 
generally N of 07N, while light to gentle SW winds are forecast 
S of 07N. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 

A narrow swath of strong trades will continue from 19N to 23N 
west of 133W through tonight, while northwest swell continues to 
propagate southeast across the waters north of 07N west of 110W. 
A low pressure system developing north of the Hawaiian islands 
will drift northward through Tue as high pressure centered north 
of the area strengthens.  The tightening pressure gradient will 
support an increasing area of strong trades, and building swell 
across the waters N of the ITCZ and west of 120W beginning on 
Mon night, and continuing through Tue night. Conditions will 
begin to improve during the middle of the week.
 
$$
Nelson