000 AXPZ20 KNHC 250329 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0329 UTC Sun Mar 25 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0200 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The ITCZ begins near 06N88W and extends to 02N100W to 05N120W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection are from 04N to 10N, west of 136W. Isolated moderate convection is elsewhere within 240 nm of the ITCZ axis. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A ridge axis that extends from 30N130W to 16N105W will meander over the area for the next several days. A batch of northwest swell of 7 to 9 ft is spreading SE offshore of northern Baja, and is expected to spread SE across all the waters west of the Baja Peninsula by Sun evening. The pressure gradient will tighten Sun and Sun night across the area as high pressure to the NW intensifies and begins to shift E, and low pressure develops over the SW United States. Fresh to strong NW winds will develop W of northern Baja Sun night, then spread across the entire area N of 21N, W of Baja on Mon and Tue, with seas to 12 ft building along 30N by late Mon. Conditions will begin to improve on Tue night as the low over the SW United States moves east. Gulf of California: Gentle to locally moderate winds are expected through Mon night. A dissipating cold front will transition to a trough before passing through the far northern gulf late Mon night followed by briefly fresh to locally strong NW flow on Tue. The remainder of the Mexico offshore waters, including the Gulf of Tehuantepec, should expect gentle to moderate winds and 4 to 6 ft seas to prevail the next several days. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Santa Maria Volcano in Guatemala at 14.75N 91.55W erupted on Thu, but ash is currently not visible over the Pacific waters. Hazy conditions and reduced visibilities are possible during any future eruptions, and conditions could deteriorate rapidly along the Pacific coast of Guatemala. Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh to strong NE nocturnal winds are expected to pulse each night through the middle of the upcoming week. Seas will reach 8 to 9 ft each night under these conditions. Gulf of Panama: Moderate to fresh northerly winds are expected to develop each night the next several nights. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate flow will prevail N of 07N while light to gentle SW winds are forecast S of 07N with seas of 4 to 6 ft. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure north of the region will produce a narrow swath of strong trades across from roughly 19N to 25N west of 130W through Mon, with seas of 9 to 11 ft, while northwest swell to 9 ft propagates SE elsewhere across the waters north of 08N west of 110W through early next week. A low pressure system is beginning to develop north of the Hawaiian islands. This low will continue to organize as it drifts northward through Tue. In the meantime, high pressure centered near 37N148W will drift east and intensify early next week. This pattern will support strong trades and large swell across the waters N of roughly 10N and west of 120W beginning on Mon night through Tue night. Fresh to strong NW winds are also expected Mon and Tue N of 27N E of 125W, around the eastern periphery of the high. Conditions are expected to gradually improve during the middle to latter parts of the upcoming week. $$ Latto