000 AXPZ20 KNHC 241518 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1517 UTC Sat Mar 24 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... Monsoon trough from 08N83W to 06N90W. ITCZ from 06N90W to 03N110W to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate convection within 90 nm of ITCZ between 90W-96W and west of 110W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A ridge axis that extends from 30N125W to 14N100W will meander over the area for the next several days. A batch of northwest swell of 7 to 9 ft is spreading SE offshore of northern Baja, and is expected to spread SE across all the waters west of the Baja Peninsula by Sun evening, with a strong northwest breeze setting up along the Pacific coast of northern Baja on this evening. The pressure gradient will further tighten throughout Sun, with fresh to locally strong flow forecast across the entire area N of 21N, W of Baja on Mon and Tue, with seas to 12 ft building along 30N by late Mon. Gulf of California: Light and variable winds are expected through the weekend with moderate to locally fresh northwest flow forecast across the entire gulf waters late Mon. A dissipating cold front will transition to a trough before passing through the far northern gulf on Mon night followed by strong NW flow on Tue, as low pressure crosses the SW United States. Gulf of Tehuantepec: High pressure over the Gulf of Mexico is weakening and retreating eastward, which will allow for strong winds currently over the Gulf of Tehuantepec to diminish under 20 kt by this afternoon. Seas to 9 ft will decrease below 8 ft through the day. Light winds will prevail thereafter over this region through the middle of the upcoming week, with seas of 4 to 6 ft. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Santa Maria Volcano in Guatemala at 14.75N 91.55W erupted on Thu, but ash is currently not visible over the Pacific waters. Hazy conditions and reduced visibilities are possible during any future eruptions, and conditions could deteriorate rapidly along the Pacific coast of Guatemala. Gulf of Papagayo: Strong to near gale force NE nocturnal winds are expected this morning, then decreasing during the daylight hours. Strong drainage winds will then pulse each night through the middle of the upcoming week. Seas will reach 8 to 9 ft each night under these conditions. Gulf of Panama: Fresh northerly winds are expected to develop each night the next several nights. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate flow will prevail N of 07N while light to gentle SW winds are forecast S of 07N with seas of 4 to 6 ft. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure north of the region will produce a narrow swath of strong trades across from roughly 19N to 25N west of 130W through the weekend with seas of 9 to 11 ft, while northwest swell to 9 ft propagates SE elsewhere across the waters north of 08N west of 110W through early next week. An intense low pressure system is expected to develop north of the Hawaiian islands tonight, then drift northward through Tue. In the meantime, high pressure centered near 35N145W this weekend will drift east and intensify early next week. This pattern will support strong trades and large swell across the waters N of roughly 10N and west of 120W beginning on Mon night. $$ ERA/ASL