000
AXPZ20 KNHC 231545
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion 
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Fri Mar 23 2018 

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is 
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and 
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1545 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Gale force winds conditions will
diminish by early this afternoon and winds will diminish to 
20 kt or less and seas will subside to less than 8 ft on Sat 
afternoon.   

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A surface trough is analyzed from 08N82W to 05N101W where 
scatterometer winds indicate an ITCZ develops, and continues W 
to beyond 05N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection 
is noted within 150 nm of 05.5N85W and within 30 nm of lines 
from 10.5N116.5W to 09.6N123W and from 04N121.5W to 05.5N130W.
 
...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section above for details on 
gale force winds expected to affect the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

A northwest to southeast ridge will meander from 23N116W to 
14N97W for the next several days. A batch of northwest swell has 
arrived at 30N120W in the form of 7 to 9 ft seas, and is 
expected to spread southeast across the all the waters west of 
the Baja Peninsula by late Sun with a strong northwest breeze 
sets up along the Pacific coast of Baja on Sun night. The 
pressure gradient will further tighten on Mon with fresh to 
locally strong flow across the entire area on Mon with seas to 
12 ft building along 30N late Mon.

Gulf of California: Light and variable winds expected through 
the weekend with moderate to locally fresh northwest flow 
forecast across the entire gulf waters late Mon.  

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Santa Maria Volcano in Guatemala at 14.75N 91.55W erupted on Thu, 
but an ash is currently not visible. Hazy conditions and reduced 
visibilities are possible during these future eruptions, and 
conditions could deteriorate rapidly along the Pacific coast of 
Guatemala. 

Gulf of Papagayo: Strong to near gale force NE nocturnal winds 
expected tonight with strong drainage winds resuming on Sat night.

Gulf of Panama: Strong northerly winds are expected tonight and 
again on Sun night. Otherwise, fresh nocturnal winds are expected to 
resume on Sat night.

Elsewhere, gentle to moderate offshore flow will prevail N of 
07N while light to gentle SW winds are forecast S of 07N. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 

Strengthening high pressure will produce a narrow swath of strong 
trades across from roughly 19N to 25N west of 130W while northwest 
swell propagates southeast across the waters north of 08N west of 
110W through early next week.
   

An intense low pressure system is expected to develop north of the 
Hawaiian Islands Sat night then drift northward through Tue. Strong 
trades and large swell will develop across the waters west of 120W 
beginning on Mon night. 

$$
Nelson