000
AXPZ20 KNHC 230324
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion 
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Fri Mar 23 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0300 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A ridge across the Gulf of 
Mexico is supporting minimal gale force winds in Tehuantepec, 
with seas to 12 ft. Winds will diminish below gale force Fri 
afternoon, and marine conditions will improve significantly on 
Saturday as the ridge shifts eastward and weakens.  

Ashfall Advisory: Santa Maria Volcano in Guatemala at 14.75N 
91.55W is erupting, and satellite imagery shows its ash cloud 
drifting SW, becoming diffuse over the Pacific. Hazy conditions 
and reduced visibilities are expected during eruptions, and 
conditions could deteriorate rapidly without notice. Mariners 
operating in the vicinity of Santa Maria are urged to exercise 
caution.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A surface trough extends from 09N79W across Panama to 06N88W. 
The ITCZ axis continues from 06N88W to 04N92W to 07N128W to 
07N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 
03N to 06N between 87W and 111W.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section above for details on 
gale force winds expected to affect the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

A weakening cold front approaching the northern Baja peninsula 
is expected to dissipate before reaching land. High pressure 
building behind the front this weekend will support moderate to 
fresh NW winds west of the Baja peninsula. Winds will increase 
further on Monday as the pressure gradient between the ridge and 
area of low pressure developing north of Texas tightens.
  
Gulf of California: Light to gentle variable winds will dominate 
the gulf waters through the weekend. Winds will become moderate 
to fresh on Monday, and fresh to strong in the southern half of 
the area on Wednesday. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Please see the Special Features section above for details on an 
Ashfall Advisory affecting the coastal waters of Guatemala.

Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh to strong northeast winds downstream 
from the Gulf of Papagayo, mainly during the night, are expected 
to persist through the middle of next week, with seas building 
to 10-11 ft each morning.

Fresh to strong northerly winds are also expected downstream of 
the Gulf of Panama through Friday evening. Light to gentle flow 
will prevail elsewhere across the region.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 

A dissipating cold front extends from 30N119W to 19N130W. The 
front will weaken then dissipate by Fri night. High pressure 
will build eastward behind the front Fri night and Sat, with the 
ridge axis along 29N. Large NW swell associated with the frontal 
system in NW forecast waters will gradually subside through Sat. 
An intense low pressure system is expected to develop north of 
the Hawaiian Islands Sat night then drift northward through Tue. 
Large swell associated with this system will affect the waters W 
of 135W Sun through Mon night.

$$
Mundell