000 AXPZ20 KNHC 202201 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Tue Mar 20 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2030 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gale Warning: A weakening cold front from 30N128W to 20N140W is supporting fresh to strong southerly flow N of 27N between 125W and 130W with seas to 10 ft. A surface low pres system N of the area near 32N137W supports a secondary cold front from 30N135W to 27N140W. Latest scatterometer data show gale-force winds N of 28N west of the secondary front and fresh to near gale-force SW winds within 150 nm east of the front. Seas in this region fluctuates between 8 to 17 ft being the highest seas in the NW corner of the forecast waters. The low is forecast to lift N-NE of the area tonight, thus allowing for winds to diminish to 20- 25 kt, then becoming 20 kt or less by early in the afternoon Wed. Large NW swell will propagate southeastward through Sat. Please refer to the Pacific high seas forecast for more details on this upcoming event under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03. Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Strong to near-gale north flow will surge into the gulf early Wed morning, then increase to minimal gale force Wed evening. Gale conditions are then expected to continue through Fri morning, with seas building to a maximum of around 13 ft. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 09N85W to 04N92W to 02N103W. The ITCZ axis continues from 02N103W to 06N120W to 07N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is within 150 nm SE either side of the ITCZ axis west of 121W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see see Special Features Section above for details on gale force winds expected to affect the Gulf of Tehuantepec area. Weak high pressure W of the northern Baja Peninsula extends a ridge axis S to near 21N. The ridge will shift south tonight and will support gentle to moderate northerly winds in the Baja offshore waters through Wednesday early in the afternoon. Moderate northerly winds will dominate the offshore waters again Friday morning as a strong ridge builds NW of the forecast waters. Gulf of California: Moderate to fresh northwest flow is across the southern half of the gulf as seen in latest scatterometer data. These winds are forecast to continue through Wednesday morning along with seas of 3 to 5 ft. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh to strong northeast winds will develop downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo early Wednesday morning, with seas building to 7 ft. Stronger winds are expected early Thu morning through Sun with seas building to 11 ft. Fresh to strong northerly winds are also expected downstream of the Gulf of Panama early Thu morning through Sat night. Light to gentle offshore flow will prevail elsewhere. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see see Special Features Section above for details on gale force winds expected to affect the NW portion of the area. A progressive pattern will continue to impact the northeast portion of the area through Thu night. A deep layer low pres system located NW of the area is preceded by deep mid to upper level moisture that will support precipitation across southern California and the northern and central Baja California during this period. $$ Ramos