000
AXPZ20 KNHC 171553
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion 
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sat Mar 07 2018 

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is 
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and 
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1545 UTC. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A surface trough is analyzed from 08N77W to 06N109W where 
scatterometer winds indicate an ITCZ develops and continues W to 
beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is 
noted in clusters within 90 nm of 05N78W, 07N84W, and 04N89W. 
Similar convection is observed within 90 nm either side of a 
line from 05N97W to 07N112W.
  
...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A weakening cold front will pass through the waters north of 27N 
through this evening accompanied by a moderate southwest to 
northwest windshift. A north to south ridge will develop with 
it's axis from 30N120W to 20N110W to 12N95W on Sun, with the 
ridge shift slightly southwest on Mon and Tue. Fresh to locally 
strong northerly winds will set up south of 25N briefly on Sun 
with the pressure gradient relaxing on Mon. Light to gentle 
northerly winds and 2 to 4 ft seas then expected through the 
middle of next week.   
  
Gulf of California: A strong SW breeze is developing along 30N 
ahead of a cold front moving through the northern gulf waters 
tonight, followed by strong northwest winds ending on Sun 
morning. Moderate northwest flow is forecast across the entire 
gulf on Sun, increasing to a fresh breeze on Sun night, with 
locally strong northwest winds possible across the southern gulf 
waters late Mon through late Tue.    

Fresh to locally strong northwest to north flow expected across 
the Pacific waters from 18N to 23N east of 110W on Sun through 
Mon night with seas building to 8 ft.

Gulf of Tehuantepec: Strong north flow will surge through the 
gulf waters on Tue night, increasing to minimal gale force 
around sunrise on Wed. Gale conditions then expected to continue 
through late Thu night, with seas building to 15 ft downstream 
near 14.5N95.5W on Wed night. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh to locally strong NE nocturnal winds 
expected tonight and again on Sun night with seas building to 7 
ft downstream.

Gulf of Panama: Fresh northerly winds are expected tonight and 
again on Sun night.

Elsewhere, gentle to moderate offshore flow will prevail N of 
08N while light to gentle SW winds are forecast S of 08N. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 

A cold front will approach 32N140W tonight with strong southerly 
flow developing across the Pacific waters from 25N to 32N west 
of 136W. The front will reach from 32N137W to 26N140W on Sun 
night, with strong southerly flow continuing north of 25N within 
about 240 nm east of the front. By then a secondary cold front 
will reach 140W, accompanied by a strong to near gale force wind 
shift north of 28N along the front, with seas building to 18 ft 
in northwest swell west of the front along a position from 
32N137W to 24N140W on Tue.

$$
Nelson