000
AXPZ20 KNHC 162107
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2019 UTC Fri Mar 16 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A surface trough axis extends from 08N81W to 04N90W to 05N100W. 
The intertropical convergence zone continues from 05N100W to
06N110W to 03N140W. Scattered moderate convection is from 02N to
06N between 87W and 103W. Scattered moderate convection is 
within 180 nm N of the ITCZ between 110W and 125W.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

An upper disturbance along the southern stream jet is supporting
a few showers across Baja California Sur and the southern Gulf of
California. A surface trough will prompt a pulse of fresh to 
strong westerly gap winds across central Baja California Norte 
into the northern Gulf of California tonight. Another somewhat 
stronger cold front will move eastward across the region north of
25N Sat into Sun, again prompting a pulse of fresh to strong gap
winds into the northern Gulf of California Sat night. Seas will 
remain 4 to 6 ft in open waters.

Looking ahead, low pressure will deepen along this boundary over
the central Rockies. The gradient between this low pressure and 
high pressure building behind the front will allow pulses of 
strong winds off Los Cabos early Sun, and off Cabo Corrientes by
early Mon. Winds and seas diminish across the region Tue as the
high pressure builds over the region.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Over Gulf of Papagayo, high pressure ridging over the Caribbean 
will bring fresh to strong NE to E winds mainly at night and in
the early morning hours until early next week with seas to 8 ft. 

Over the Gulf of Panama, moderate to fresh winds will increase to
fresh to strong to night with 4 to 6 ft seas building to 5 to 7 
ft by late today.

Elsewhere, expect gentle to moderate winds and 4 to 6 ft to
persist.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 

Residual NW swell to 8 ft will persist south of 10N west of 135W
through Sat evening, then decay below 8 ft. The tail end of a cold 
front extends from 30N125W to 28N130W approaching the northern 
most Baja California offshores Sat with more scattered showers. 
Weak ridging will prevail in its wake along 29N, maintain gentle
to moderate trade winds in the deep tropics and 5 to 7 ft 
overall across the basin through late Sat. 

Farther south into the deep tropics, a broad upper trough is 
interacting with trade wind convergence to support scattered 
showers and a few thunderstorms from 02N to 06N between 87W and 
103W.

Looking ahead, the pattern will change Sun as a deep layer low
and associated cold front approaches the region at 30N140W from 
the north central Pacific. Strong SW winds will occur ahead of 
the front, mainly over the waters north of 25N and east of 130W 
through Sun night. Strong westerly winds and seas reaching as 
high as 15 ft will follow the front through early next week over 
the area north of 20N and west of 125W through late Tue.

$$
Formosa