000
AXPZ20 KNHC 160342
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
342 UTC Fri Mar 16 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0330 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A surface trough axis extends from 09N84W to 05N100W. The 
intertropical convergence zone continues from 04N100W to 04N140W.
Scattered moderate convection is from 02N to 05N between 86W and
92W. Scattered moderate convection is within 180 nm N of the 
ITCZ between 113W and 128W.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A weakening cold front extends from deep low pressure over the
central Rockies through northwest Mexico and into southern Baja
California Sur. The front will continue eastward and inland
before dissipating early Fri. Long period NW swell off the coast
of Baja California Norte will decay below 8 ft through early Fri. A
surface trough approaching from the west will move across the 
region through late Fri. This may prompt a pulse fresh to strong 
westerly gap winds across central Baja California Norte into the 
northern Gulf of California Fri night. Another somewhat stronger 
cold front will move eastward across the region north of 25N Sat 
into Sun, again prompting a pulse of fresh to strong gap winds 
into the northern Gulf of California Sat night. Seas will remain
4 to 6 ft in open waters.

Looking ahead, low pressure will deepen along this boundary over
the central Rockies. The gradient between this low pressure and 
high pressure building behind the front will allow pulses of 
strong winds off Los Cabos early Sun, and off Cabo Corrientes by
early Mon. Winds and seas diminish across the region Tue as the
high pressure builds over the region.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Over Gulf of Papagayo, high pressure ridging over the Caribbean 
will bring fresh to strong NE to E winds mainly at night and in
the early morning hours until early next week. 

Over the Gulf of Panama, moderate to fresh winds will increase to
fresh to strong to night with 4 to 6 ft seas building to 5 to 7 
ft by late Fri.

Elsewhere, expect gentle to moderate winds and 4 to 6 ft to
persist.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 

Residual NW swell to 8 ft will persist south of 15N west of 125W
through early Fri, then decay below 8 ft. A trough will move
across the waters north of 25N and east of 130W through Fri. Weak
ridging will prevail in its wake along 29N, maintain gentle to
moderate trade winds in the deep tropics and 5 to 7 ft overall
across the basin through late Sat. 

Farther south into the deep tropics, a broad upper trough is
interacting with trade wind convergence to support scattered
showers and a few thunderstorms from 02N to 05N between 86W and
92W.

Looking ahead, the pattern will change Sun as a deep layer low 
approaches the region from the north central Pacific. Strong SW 
winds will occur ahead of the front, mainly over the waters north
of 25N and east of 130W through Sun night, with a front entering
the area early Mon. Strong westerly winds and seas reaching as 
high as 15 ft will follow the front through early next week over 
the area north of 20N and west of 125W through late Tue.

$$
Christensen