000 AXPZ20 KNHC 132211 CCA TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Tue Mar 13 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2145 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: High pressure ridging surging southward along eastern Mexico southward to the southeastern Mexico is maintains a a tight pres gradient inland the Gulf of Tehuantepec region. This synoptic set-up continues to bring northerly gale force force winds in the range of 30-35 kt to across thr Gulf of Tehuantepec waters. Ship with caller ID "A8LL8" confirmed these winds when it reported 35 kt wind speeds at a location of 16N95W at 18Z this afternoon. These gale conditions will persist through tonight, before diminishing to just below gale force early on Wed afternoon and increase back to minimal gale force Wed evening. They are forecast to diminsh to just below gale force around 15Z on Thu, and continue on a diminishing trend into Thu night as the gradient relaxes. The seas of 10-13 ft will slowly subside to a max of around 10 ft on Thu. Please see the latest Pacific Ocean High Seas Forecast product under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough axis extends from 06N77W to 09N83W to 05N90W to 04N98W. ITCZ axis begins at 04N98W and continues top 04N110W to 04N120W to 03N130W to 03N140W. Scattered strong convection is within 120 nm S of the trough between 83W and 86W, and also within 60 nm N of the axis between 125W and 129W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for details on an ongoing Gulf of Tehuantepec gale event. High pressure of 1021 mb is analyzed at 26N123W. The associated pressure gradient is maintaining generally moderate northwesterly winds across the region, except for moderate to fresh winds off the coast of Baja California Sur from Cabo San Lazaro to Punta Eugenia. Seas are 5 to 7 ft off the coast of Baja California and 3 to 5 ft in the Gulf of California. Winds and seas will diminish through tonight and into early Wed as the high pressure shifts eastward and weakens ahead of a cold front that is along a position from near 32N123W to 24N130W and dissipating to 21N135W. The front will push across Baja California Norte and the northern Gulf of California by Wed evening. Strong westerly gap winds are possible over northern Baja California into the Gulf of California Wed night, then diminish as the front moves farther southward and weakens. Long period NW swell in excess of 8 ft will move into the waters off Baja California beginning Wed following the front. The swell will propagate to the waters of Baja California Sur by late Thu before decaying below 8 ft. Winds and seas will continue to diminish into Fri as high pressure builds over the region. Beyond 48 hours, southwest winds will increase and another round of NW will move into the region ahead of another cold front moving west across the region. Strong westerly gap winds are again possible into the northern Gulf of California Fri night into Sat as the front moves through the region. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Over Gulf of Papagayo, high pressure ridging over the Caribbean will cause moderate to fresh winds to pulse over the Gulf of Papagayo through Tue. Winds will increase to fresh to strong beginning this evening and last into Fri night as the pressure gradient re-strengthens in response to high pressure building southeastward over the Caribbean from the Gulf of Mexico. Over the Gulf of Panama, gentle to moderate winds will prevail through mid week, increasing to moderate to fresh thereafter. Seas are expected to be in the range of 4 and 6 ft as moderate cross- equatorial SW swell propagates through these waters, building the seas 5 to 7 ft Thu and Fri as the winds also increase. Elsewhere, expect gentle to moderate winds and 4 to 6 ft seas to prevail, except seas of 8 to 11 ft in northerly swells generated from a gale force gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, which will propagate into the Guatemala offshore waters tonight through Tue night. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A cold front extending from near 32N124W to 24N124W will shift eastward across the waters north of 20N through tonight into early Wed. Areas of rain with embedded scattered showers are noted within 180 nm to the east of the front from 26N to 29N. NW swell is propagating into the region behind the front, with seas in excess of 8 ft and reaching 10-15 ft N of 28N and W of 130W. These seas will subside through Wed. NW to N swell producing seas in the range of 8- 10 ft will slowly subside to the west of about 118W through Thu. Farther to the south, long period NW swell from 07N to 10N between 125W and 135W will decay by early this evening as the swell energy dissipates. $$ Aguirre