000 AXPZ20 KNHC 101600 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1441 UTC Sat Mar 10 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1445 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The ITCZ axis extends from 04N96W to 02N118W to 06N134W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 10N W of 134W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Weakening 1016 mb high pressure centered near 24N120W ridges SE across the open waters W of the Baja California peninsula. Mainly light to moderate NW-N winds prevail beneath this ridge, except moderate to locally fresh winds adjacent to the Baja California peninsula. These conditions will prevail through today. Winds will increase to between 15 and 20 kt Sun through Tue as the high gradually rebuilds. The high will weaken once again by mid-week as a decaying cold front approaches. Winds near Cabo Corrientes could become locally strong tonight through Sun. Gulf of California: Light to gentle winds are expected across the northern Gulf today as gentle to moderate winds generally prevail across the central and southern waters. Winds will increase to 10-15 kt across the northern Gulf Sun through early next week in response to building high pres just NW of the offshore zones. Winds will become fresh to locally strong across the central and southern waters Sun night and Mon night. The pressure gradient across the region will weaken Tue through Wed, which will allow winds to diminish to between gentle and moderate across the Gulf of California. Gulf of Tehuantepec: Light to moderate onshore winds will prevail through the weekend. Model guidance suggests another northerly gap wind event commencing Mon as expansive high pressure builds southward over the western Gulf of Mexico behind the next cold front. Winds will rapidly increase to gale force Mon evening, peaking around 40 kt overnight into early Tue. Gale force winds may diminish by early Thu, with brief lulls below gale force also possible during the afternoon hours Tue and Wed. Seas will peak around 16 ft Tue morning. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... The Fuego Volcano located in Guatemala near 14.5N90.9W continues to intermittently vent light amounts of smoke and ash. Any significant ash emissions that do occur will likely remain over land to the west of the summit during the next 12 to 24 hours. High pressure ridging SE over the Caribbean will continue to support pulsing fresh to strong winds over the Gulf of Papagayo, mainly during the overnight and early morning hours, through Sun morning. Winds will peak at around 25 kt in the immediate Gulf, with seas topping out around 8 ft. The ridging will weaken thereafter with pulsing moderate to fresh winds expected Sun night through mid week. Over the Gulf of Panama, moderate N winds will pulse to fresh through this morning. Seas are expected to be 5-6 ft as N wind waves mix with moderate cross-equatorial SW swell. Elsewhere, expect gentle to moderate winds and 4-7 ft seas to prevail during the next couple of days. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Surface troughing extending SW from 28N128W to 24N135W to beyond 18N140W and a cold front curving SW from 30N127W to 29N128W to 28N132W are associated with broad low pressure over the NW portion and N central waters. A plume of deep tropical moisture extends NE from SE of the Hawaiian Islands over the discussion waters. Scattered moderate convection is present within 60 nm of the front as well as within 60 nm of the trough axis S of 25N. Scatterometer data from around 05Z showed 20 to 25 kt winds within 60 nm to the SE of the front N of 28N. Seas to 9 ft are collocated with the area of strongest winds. These conditions will lift N of the area by this evening. The next cold front will breach 30N140W from the NW by Sun afternoon. An area of fresh to strong SW winds will precede the front, as well as follow it, finally diminishing by Mon night. Large NW swell will also accompany the boundary reaching as high as 14 to 16 ft by Mon evening. The front will weaken as it moves across the waters N of 24N and W of 125W. A weaker cold front will introduce a round of reinforcing NW swell Tue night through Wed night. Moderate to locally fresh trades combined with decaying NW swell are supporting combined seas of 7 to 9 ft across the waters N of the intertropical convergence zone to 15N. The pressure gradient will weaken this weekend and allow seas to subside to less than 8 ft in this area by early next week. $$ CAM