000
AXPZ20 KNHC 092105
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1814 UTC Fri Mar 9 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2045 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A surface trough extends WSW from 06N77W to 05N88W. The ITCZ 
continues from 05N88W to 05N93W to 01N115W to 00N123W to 05N137W 
to beyond 06N140W. Numerous moderate and scattered strong 
convection is present from 05N to 08N between 76W and 79W.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Weak 1018 mb high pressure centered near 27N121W ridges SE 
across the open waters W of the Baja California peninsula. Mainly
light to moderate NW-N winds prevail beneath this ridge, except 
moderate to locally fresh winds adjacent to the Baja California 
peninsula. These conditions will prevail through Sat. Winds will 
increase to between 15 and 20 kt Sun through Tue as the high 
gradually builds. Winds near Cabo Corrientes could become locally
strong on Sun.

Gulf of California: Light to gentle winds are expected across 
the northern Gulf through Sat, with mainly gentle to moderate 
winds prevailing across the central and south waters. Winds will 
increase to 10-15 kt across the northern Gulf Sun through early 
next week in response to building high pres just NW of the 
offshore zones. Winds will become fresh to locally strong across 
the central and south waters Sun night and Mon.

Gulf of Tehuantepec: High pressure ridging southward over the 
western Gulf of Mexico from eastern Texas and Louisiana to the 
southern Bay of Campeche is sustaining fresh to strong winds over
the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Winds will decrease to light speeds 
this afternoon. Model guidance suggests another gap wind event 
peaking at gale force will commence across the Tehuantepec region
late Sun night or early Mon morning through at least the middle 
of next week as expansive high pressure builds southward over the
western Gulf of Mexico behind the next cold front, then remains 
in place. Winds could peak at strong gale force Mon night or Tue 
morning.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Fuego Volcano located in Guatemala near 14.5N90.9W continues to 
intermittently vent light amounts of smoke and ash. Animated 
satellite imagery suggests any significant ash emissions that do 
occur will remain over land to the west of the summit during the
next 12 to 24 hours.

High pres ridging SE over the Caribbean is generating fresh to 
strong offshore gap winds over the Gulf of Papagayo, but the 
ridge has begun to weaken. Strong winds will continue over the 
Gulf of Papagayo through Tue night, but the areal coverage of the
strong winds has begun to decrease and this trend is expected to
continue. Winds will spike to 30 kt tonight and early Sat 
morning, with seas building to around 8 ft. Winds and seas will 
gradually taper off early next week as high pres over the 
Caribbean continues to weaken. Over the Gulf of Panama, moderate 
N winds will pulse to fresh during the overnight and early 
morning hours through Tue night. Seas are expected to be 6-7 ft 
as N wind waves mix with moderate cross-equatorial SW swell.

Elsewhere, expect gentle to moderate winds and 4-7 ft seas to
prevail during the next couple of days.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 

A surface trough cuts across the NW portion of the discussion 
area from 30N128W to 26N135W to 1012 mb low pres centered near 
24N140W. An mid to upper-level trough just to the NW of 30N140W
is supporting scattered convection within 150 nm of the surface
trough axis. Long period NW swell that were earlier generated NW
of the trough continues to propagate through the NW waters while
decaying. The swell are mixing with easterly wind waves S of 17N
to produce an area of 8-9 ft seas generally from 05N to 17N W of
120W. Seas of 6 to 7 ft in NW swell are prevalent between 20N 
and 30N W of 120W. The swell will continue to gradually subside 
during the next 24 to 48 hours.

The next cold front entering the NW waters will be strong and could
cause seas near 30N140W to build as high as 16 ft by Mon 
evening. The front will weaken as it moves across the NW portion,
then a weaker cold front will introduce a round of reinforcing 
NW swell Tue night through Wed night.

$$
CAM