000 AXPZ20 KNHC 090919 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 915 UTC Fri Mar 9 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The ITCZ axis extends from 05N88W to 00N110W to 02N125W to 06N140W. Scattered moderate is within an area bounded by a line from 10N136W to 08N136W to 06N137W to 08N140W to 11N140W to 10N136W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Weak 1019 mb high pressure near 29N123w extends a ridge to the SE across the open waters W of the Baja California peninsula. Mainly light to moderate NW-N winds prevail under this ridge, except moderate to locally fresh near the Baja California peninsula. These conditions will prevail through Sat. Winds will increase to 15 to 20 kt Sun through early next week as the high gradually builds. Winds near Cabo Corrientes could become locally strong on Sun. Gulf of California: Light to gentle winds are expected across the northern Gulf through Sat, with mainly gentle to moderate winds prevailing across the central and south waters. Winds are expected to increase to 10-15 kt across the northern Gulf Sun through early next week in response to building high pres just NW of the offshore zones. Winds will become fresh to locally strong across the central and south waters Sun night and Mon. Gulf of Tehuantepec: High pressure ridging southward over the western Gulf of Mexico from eastern Texas and Louisiana to the southern Bay of Campeche is sustaining fresh to near gale winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Winds will decrease to light speeds by the afternoon. Model guidance suggests another gap wind event peaking at gale force will commence across the Tehuantepec region late Sun night through Tue night in conjunction with the next cold front entering the Gulf of Mexico. Winds may peak around strong gale force Mon night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fuego Volcano located in Guatemala near 14.5N90.9W continues to intermittently vent light amounts of smoke and ash. Animated satellite imagery suggests any significant ash emissions that do occur will remain near the summit during the next 12-24 hours. High pres ridging SE over the Caribbean is generating fresh to strong offshore gap winds over the Gulf of Papagayo and Gulf of Panama. Across the Papagayo region, strong winds will continue through Tue night. Winds will pulse to 30 kt at night through early Sat morning, with seas building as high as 10-11 ft. Winds and seas will gradually taper off early next week as high pres over the Caribbean weakens. Over the Gulf of Panama, fresh N winds will pulse to strong during the overnight and early morning hours through early Fri, then will diminish. Seas are expected to be 6-7 ft as northerly wind waves mix with moderate cross- equatorial SW swell. Elsewhere, expect gentle to moderate winds and 4-7 ft seas through the next couple of days. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A pair of surface troughs curve across the NW portion, one from 30N135W to NE of the Hawaiian Islands at 20N150W, and the other from 30N128W to 22N140W. Long period NW swell that was earlier generated NW of these features continues to propagate through the NW waters while decaying. The swell are mixing with easterly wind waves S of 20N to produce an area of 8-10 ft seas generally from 06N to 22N W of 120W. Seas of 6-8 ft in NW swell are prevalent between 20N and 30N W of 127W. The swell will continue to gradually fade during the next 24-48 hours. A strong cold front entering the NW waters could cause seas near 30N140W to build as high as 16 ft by Mon evening. The front will weaken as it moves across the NW portion with another cold front and associated set of NW swell arriving Tue. $$ Lewitsky