000
AXPZ20 KNHC 082143
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1853 UTC Thu Mar 8 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2015 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A surface trough extends from 06N87W to 05N92W to 03N98W. The 
ITCZ continues from 03N98W to 01N110W to 06N135W to beyond 
06N140W. A second ITCZ enters the discussion area in the Southern
Hemisphere near 03.4S117W, then heads W to beyond 03S120W. 
Scattered moderate convection is located from 07N to 09N between 
135W and 140W.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Long period NW swell continues to propagate southward west of 
the Baja California peninsula. Seas have subsided to between 3
and 5 ft in the offshore waters. Weak 1021 mb high pressure
centered near 30N122W will continue to maintain gentle to 
moderate moderate NW to N winds across the offshore waters of 
Baja California until Fri. Winds will increase to 15 to 20 kt 
Sun through Mon as the high gradually builds. Winds near Cabo 
Corrientes could become locally strong on Sun.

Gulf of California: Light to gentle winds are expected across 
the northern Gulf through Sat, with mainly gentle to moderate 
winds prevailing across the central and south waters. Winds are 
expected to increase to 10-15 kt across the northern Gulf Sun 
through Mon in response to building high pres just NW of the
offshore zones. Winds will become fresh to locally strong across
the central and south waters Sun night and Mon.

Gulf of Tehuantepec: High pressure ridging southward over the 
western Gulf of Mexico from eastern Texas and Louisiana to the 
southern Bay of Campeche is sustaining strong to near gale winds 
over the Gulf of Tehuantepec. This latest gap wind event has 
already peaked and winds will decrease to light speeds by Sat 
morning. Model guidance suggests another gap wind event peaking 
at gale force will commence across the Tehuantepec region late 
Sun night through Mon night in conjunction with the next cold 
front entering the Gulf of Mexico. Please refer to the latest 
High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFEP2/FZPN03 for more
details.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Fuego Volcano located in Guatemala near 14.5N90.9W continues to 
intermittently vent light amounts of smoke and ash. Animated 
satellite imagery suggests any significant ash emissions that do 
occur will remain near the summit during the next 24 hours.

High pres ridging SE over the Caribbean is generating fresh to 
strong offshore gap winds over the Gulf of Papagayo and Gulf of 
Panama. Across the Papagayo region, strong winds will continue 
through Mon night. Winds will pulse to 30 kt at night through 
early Sat morning, with seas building as high as 11 ft. Winds and
seas will gradually taper off early next week as high pres over 
the Caribbean weakens. Over the Gulf of Panama, fresh N winds 
will pulse to strong during the overnight and early morning hours
through tonight, then subside. Seas are expected to be 6 to 8 ft
as northerly wind waves mix with moderate cross-equatorial SW 
swell.

Elsewhere, expect gentle to moderate winds and 4-7 ft seas
through the next couple of days.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 

A surface trough curves SSW from 30N128W to 26N129W to 21N131W. 
Long period NW swell generated NW of this feature while it was a 
still a cold front continue to propagate through the NW waters 
and decay. The swell are mixing with easterly wind waves S of 20N
to produce an area of 8 to 10 ft seas between 06N and 20N W of 
120W. Seas of 8 to 9 ft in NW swell are prevalent between 20N and
30N W of 125W. The swell will gradually fade during the next 24 
to 48 hours, allowing the area of high seas to greatly diminish. 
By Sat, a much smaller area of 8 to 9 ft seas will cover the 
waters from 06N to 10N between 124W and 137W as the NW swell 
continue to disperse. A strong cold front entering the NW waters 
could cause seas near 30N140W to build as high as 16 ft by Mon 
evening.

$$
CAM