000 AXPZ20 KNHC 081604 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1444 UTC Thu Mar 8 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1445 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: High pressure ridging southward over the western Gulf of Mexico from Texas to the souther Bay of campeche is sustaining a brief gap wind event over the Gulf of Tehuantepec. This latest event has already peaked between 30 and 40 kt. Winds have decreased to minimal gale force with seas presently running between 8 and 13 ft. Winds will quickly fall below gale force this afternoon, then become light and variable Fri. Model guidance suggests another gap wind event peaking at gale force will commence across the Tehuantepec region late Sun night through Mon night. Please refer to the latest High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFEP2/FZPN03 for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The ITCZ extends from 02N95W to 01N106W to beyond 08N140W. A second ITCZ enters the discussion area in the Southern Hemisphere near 03.4S109W, then reaches W to 03S112W to beyond 03S120W. No significant convection is associated with either of these features. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Long period NW swell continues to propagate southward west of the Baja California peninsula. Seas have subsided to 3-5 ft in offshore waters. Weak high pressure located near 30N122W will produce gentle to moderate moderate NW-N winds across the offshore waters of Baja California until Fri. Winds will increase to 15-20 kt Sun through Mon as the high strengthens somewhat. Gulf of California: Light to gentle winds are expected across the northern Gulf through Sat, with mainly gentle to moderate winds across the central and south waters. Winds are expected to increase to 10-15 kt across the northern Gulf on Sun through Mon, becoming fresh to locally strong across the central and south waters Sun night and Mon. Gulf of Tehuantepec: Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details regarding the gale warning currently in effect for this area. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fuego Volcano located in Guatemala near 14.5N 90.9W continues to intermittently vent light amounts of smoke and ash. Animated satellite imagery suggests any significant ash emissions will remain near the summit during the next 24 hours. Winds passing through Central America are producing fresh to strong offshore gap winds in the Gulf of Papagayo and Gulf of Panama. Across the Papagayo region, fresh to strong winds will continue through Fri, and pulse to 30 kt at times through early Sat morning, with seas building to 10 ft. 25 kt winds are likely during late night and early morning hours through the weekend, with max seas around 8 ft. Over the Gulf of Panama, fresh N winds will pulse to strong during the overnight and early morning hours through tonight, then subside. Seas are expected to be 6 to 8 ft as northerly wind waves mix with moderate cross- equatorial SW swell. Elsewhere, expect gentle to moderate winds and 4-7 ft seas through the next couple of days. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A weakening warm front extends from 30N128W to 1012 mb low pres centered near 28N129W, then a weakening cold front extends SW from the low to 22N137W. Long period NW swell follows the front, with 8-10 ft seas primarily in NW waters. The front will slowly move E and dissipate to a frontal trough. The swell is mixing with easterly wind waves S of 20N to produce an area of 8-9 ft seas N of 09N W of 130W. The swell will gradually fade during the next 24 to 48 hours, allowing the area of high seas to greatly diminish. By Sat, 8-9 ft seas will cover the waters from 06N to 15N W of 120W. $$ CAM