000
AXPZ20 KNHC 072120
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Wed Mar 7 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Gulf of Tehuantepec: Building high pressure in the wake of a cold
front moving across the SW Gulf of Mexico this afternoon will 
induce a gap wind event across the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Winds are
forecast to increase to minimal gale force this evening, with 
seas building to 11-12 ft. Then, winds will further increase to 
30-40 kt by early Thu morning, with seas in the 12-14 ft range. 
Winds are forecast to diminish below gale force on Fri. Marine 
guidance suggests another gap wind event across the Tehuantepec 
region late Sun night through Mon night. Please, refer to the 
latest High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFEP2/FZPN03 
for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A surface trough extends from 05N83W to 04N91W. The ITCZ axis 
continues from 04N91W to 03N120W to beyond 06N140W. Isolated
moderate convection is N of the ITCZ to 12N and W of 128W.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Long period NW swell continues to propagate southward west of 
the Baja California peninsula. Seas are subsiding to 4-6 ft in 
offshore waters. Weak high pressure of 1018 mb located near 
28N121W will produce gentle to moderate moderate NW-N winds 
across the offshore waters of Baja California through at least
Fri. Winds are forecast to increase to 15-20 kt Sun through Mon
as the high pressure located just west of offshore waters
strengthens some. 

Gulf of California: Light to gentle winds are expected across 
the northern Gulf through Sat, with mainly gentle to moderate
winds across the central and south waters. As the aforementioned
high pressure strengthens some, winds are expected to increase 
to 10-15 kt across the northern Gulf on Sun through Mon, with 
15-20 kt across the central and south waters during the same 
forecast period. 

Gulf of Tehuantepec: Please, see SPECIAL FEATURES section for
details. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Fuego Volcano located near 14.5N 90.9W in Guatemala continues to 
vent frequent volcanic ash puffs based on reports from the 
Weather Service in Guatemala (INSIVUMEH). Computer model suggests
that the volcanic ash is moving NW. 

Moderate NE winds in the SW Caribbean passing through Central 
America are producing fresh to strong offshore gap winds in the 
Gulf of Papagayo and Gulf of Panama. Across the Papagayo region, 
fresh to strong winds will continue through Thu and are expected 
to pulse to 30 kt tonight through early Sat morning, with seas 
building to 10 ft. The rest of the forecast period, 25 kt winds 
are likely during late night and early morning hours, with seas 
peaking around 8 ft. In the Gulf of Panama, fresh northerly winds
will pulse to strong during the overnight and early morning 
hours through Thu night. Seas are expected to be 6 to 9 ft as 
northerly wind waves mix with moderate cross-equatorial SW swell.

Elsewhere, expect gentle to moderate winds and 4-7 ft seas
through the next couple of days.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 

A cold front extending from a gale center located N of the area 
enters the forecast region near 30N129W, and continues SW to 
near 21N140W. Long period NW swell follows the front, building 
seas to 9 to 13 ft in NW waters. Altimeter data confirmed the 
presence of these sea heights. The front will move E and weaken 
over the next 24 hours, then dissipate to a frontal trough. This
system will extend from 30N128W to 25N129W to 20N135W on Thu, 
and from 30N125W TO 26N130W TO 26N135W on Fri. This swell event 
is currently mixing with easterly wind waves to produce an area
of 8-11 ft seas W of a line from 30N127W to 20N130W to 10N140W. 
This swell will gradually fade over the next 24 to 48 hours, and 
significantly reduce the area of 8 ft or higher seas. By Fri, 
seas of 8-9 ft will roughly cover the waters from 05N to 18N W 
of 118W.

$$
GR