000 AXPZ20 KNHC 070320 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Wed Mar 7 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 05N84W to 04N94W. The ITCZ axis extends from 04N94W to 09N119W to 09N131W to 07N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 60 nm south and 150 nm north of the ITCZ between 131W and 140W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... NW swell continues to propagate southward west of the Baja California peninsula and decay to 5-7 ft in offshore waters. Weak high pressure over the NE Pacific will shift SSE to near 30N121W tonight and induce moderate N to NNW winds across the offshore waters of Baja California through Wed. The high will strengthen Wed night and Thu, and freshen winds west of Baja during the latter part of the week. Gulf of California: NW winds will slowly diminish tonight, particularly across N portions. Moderate NNW winds are expected the next 24-36 hours, diminishing further Thu through Fri. Gulf of Tehuantepec: A cold front moving across the NW Gulf of Mexico this evening will move SE and induce strong northerly winds across Tehuantepec by around midday on Wed. Winds are expected to increase to gale force on Wed night and continue through around midday on Thu. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fuego Volcano located near 14.5N 90.9W in Guatemala continues to intermittently vent light amounts of smoke and ash, with recent satellite imagery suggesting the associated ash cloud drifting NW over land. Moderate NE winds in the SW Caribbean passing through Central America are producing fresh to strong offshore gap winds in the Gulf of Papagayo and Gulf of Panama. Across the Papagayo region, fresh to strong winds will continue through Wed and are expected to briefly pulse to 30 kt on Wed night, with seas building to 10 ft. Subsequent days will usher 25 kt winds during late night and early morning hours, with seas peaking around 8 ft. In the Gulf of Panama, fresh northerly winds will pulse to strong during the overnight and early morning hours through Wed. Seas are expected to be 6 to 9 ft as northerly wind waves mix with moderate cross- equatorial SW swell. Elsewhere, expect gentle to moderate winds and 4-7 ft seas through the next couple of days. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A strong low pressure area in far NW waters with a cold front extending from 30N 138W to 28N140W is producing gale force winds N of 30N and 20-30 kt W to SW winds NW of a line from 30N126W to 27N140W. NW swell generated by the low is producing an area of 8 to 12 ft seas in this area. The front will move E over the next 24-36 hours, then dissipate from 30N129W to 21N133W by Wed night. An extensive area of NW to N swell is mixing across the waters W of 120W with easterly wind waves to produce 8-11 ft seas over an area W of a line from 30N127W to 17N128W to 12N113W to 06N113W to 03N120W to 10N140W. This swell will gradually fade over the next 24 to 48 hours, and significantly reduce the area of 8 ft and higher seas across this zone. A cold front associated with a deep layered low pressure system near 36N141W continues to move slowly SE across the NW waters and extends from 30N132W to 22N140W. This deep low pressure system extends troughing SW into the deep tropics S of the Hawaiian Islands. The system is inducing an area of significant low level moisture convergence across the far W waters of the discussion area. An extensive area of deep convection prevails within 200 nm of a line from 13N140W to 25N130W. This weather will remain active through Wed. $$ Mundell