000
AXPZ20 KNHC 061614
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
835 UTC Tue Mar 6 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1515 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The ITCZ axis extends from 02N103W to beyond 07.5N140W. scattered 
moderate to strong convection is noted within 60 nm S and 150 nm 
N of ITCZ to the W of 120W.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

The NW swell from a recent cold front continues to propagate 
southward through the offshore waters of Baja California Sur as 
it decays. Seas of 8 ft and greater have shifted S of 17N across 
the offshore waters associated with this swell. Weak high 
pressure over the NE Pacific and along the coast of California 
is shifting SSE and will reorganize along about 29N-30N later 
today to produce moderate N to NNW winds across the offshore 
waters of Baja California, continuing through Wed. The high 
pressure will strengthen Wed night and Thu and act to freshen 
winds across the waters during the latter part of the week.

Gulf of California: Fresh NNW winds through the entire length of 
the Gulf overnight are slowly diminsihing this morning. A chance 
altimeter pass across the central portions of the Gulf showed 
seas of 4-6 ft between 26N and 27N. Winds will gradually 
diminish today, especially across N portions, as a high center 
reorganizes across the offshore waters along 29N-30N. Moderate to 
locally fresh NNW winds are expected to the next few days, and 
diminishing further Thu through Fri.

Gulf of Tehuantepec: A weak pressure gradient across the 
Tehuantpec region is allowing local wind flow to be dominated 
with land-sea interaction, with light onshore flow expected 
today and a moderate land breeze at night. A cold front moving 
entering the Gulf of Mexico this morning will move SE and induce 
strong northerly winds across Tehuantepec by around midday on 
Wed. Winds are expected to increase to gale force on Wed night 
and continue through around midday on Thu.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

The Fuego Volcano located near 14.5N 90.9W over southern 
Guatemala is venting light amounts of ash, with recent satellite 
imagery suggesting the associated ash cloud drifting NW and 
remaining over land. Local interests are urged to closely follow 
volcanic activity in this area. 

Moderate NE winds across the SW Caribbean are passing across 
Central America and producing fresh to strong offshore gap winds 
across the Gulf of Papagayo and Gulf of Panama. Across the 
Papagayo region, fresh to strong winds will continue today 
through Wed and are expected to briefly pulse to 30 kt on Wed 
night, with seas building to 10 ft. Subsequent days will usher 
25 kt winds during late night and early morning hours, with seas 
peaking around 8 ft.

Across the Gulf of Panama, fresh northerly winds will pulse to 
strong during the overnight and early morning hours through Wed. 
Seas are expected to range in the 7 to 9 ft range as the 
northerly wind swell mixed with moderate cross equatorial SW 
swell. 

Elsewhere, expect gentle to moderate winds and 4-7 ft seas
through the next couple of days.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 

An extensive area of NW to N swell is mixing across the waters W 
of 120W with easterly tradewind waves to produce seas in the 
range of 8 to 11 ft, covering an area from 02N TO 180N to the W 
of 105W. This NW swell will gradually fade over the next 24 to 
48 hours, and significantly reduce the area of 8 ft and higher 
seas across this zone.

A cold front associated with a deep layered low pressure system 
near 36N141W continues to move slowly SE across the NW waters 
and extends from 30N136W to beyond 26N140W. NW swell generated 
by the low is outracing the cold front and producing an area of 
8 to 12 ft seas to the W of a line from 30N129W TO 23N140W. W of 
front over the NW corner W to NW 15 to 20 kt prevail. This front 
will propagate ESE over the next 48 hours and is expected to 
reach from 30N129W TO 21N133W by Wed night where it will begin 
to dissipate.

This deep layered low pressure system is also inducing an area 
of significant low level moisture convergence across the 
tropical waters to the SE of the big island of Hawaii, and 
across the far W waters of the discussion area. An extensive 
area of deep convection prevails across the tropical waters S of 
12N to the S and SE of the Hawaiian Islands and extends NE into 
the discussion area, where scattered moderate to strong 
convection is noted within 180 nm of a line from 13.5N140W to 
24N131W. This weather will remain active through Wed.

$$
Stripling