000 AXPZ20 KNHC 052219 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2210 UTC Mon Mar 5 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2030 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The ITCZ axis extends from 05N93.5W TO 02.5N118W TO 08N133W TO beyond 08.5N140W. Widely scattered moderate to strong convection is noted within 120 nm either side of the ITCZ to the W of 126W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... The NW swell from a recent cold front continues to propagate southward through the offshore waters of Baja California Sur as it decays today. Afternoon altimeter data suggested seas were around 8 ft within 90 nm of the coast of Baja California and to the S of 27N. Weak high pressure over the NE Pacific and along the coasts of California and Oregon will reorganize to the south along about 30N tonight through Tue to produce moderate N to NNW winds across the offshore waters of Baja California, continuing through Wed. The high pressure will strengthen Wed night and Thu and act to freshen winds across the waters during the latter part of the week. Gulf of California: The pressure gradient inside the Gulf is tighter than across the offshore waters, and is producing fresh northerly winds to the N of 24N across the Gulf this afternoon. These fresh winds to near 25 kt will continue through this evening, with seas expected to increase to 6-7 ft across central portions. Winds will then begin to diminish overnight as a high center reorganizes along 30N, becoming moderate to fresh winds on Tue and Wed. Gulf of Tehuantepec: A weak pressure gradient across the Tehuantpec region is allowing local wind flow to be dominated with land-sea interaction, with light onshore flow expected the remainder of the afternoon and on Tue, and a moderate land breeze at night. A cold front moving across the Gulf of Mexico Tue and Wed will induce strong northerly winds across Tehuantepec on Wed. Winds are expected to increase to gale force on Wed night and continue through around midday on Thu. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... The Fuego Volcano located near 14.5N 90.9W over southern Guatemala was venting light amounts of ash this morning, with the associated ash cloud drifting W and remaining over land. Afternoon satellite imagery suggests no significant ash clouds have developed this afternoon. Local interests are urged to closely follow volcanic activity in this area. A very weak pressure gradient prevails across the SW Caribbean and tropical NE Pacific, in part due to the large and powerful low pressure system in the Western Atlantic. However, this Atlantic low is indirectly causing moderate N to NE winds across the SW Caribbean that are producing fresh to strong gap winds across the Papagayo region and across the Gulf of Panama. Across the Papagayo region, fresh to locally strong NE winds over and downstream of the Gulf continue today, and are expected to briefly pulse to near 30 kt tonight into early on Tue, with seas building to 9 ft. Typical offshore gap winds are then expected for the next few days and pulse to around 25 kt each late night and early morning, with downstream seas peaking at around 8 ft. Across the Gulf of Panama, fresh northerly winds will pulse to strong during the overnight and early morning hours through Wed. Seas are expected to range in the 7 to 9 ft range and they mix with modest SW cross equatorial swell. Elsewhere, expect gentle to moderate winds and 4-7 ft seas through the next couple of days. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... An extensive area of NW to N swell is mixing across the waters W of 120W with easterly tradewind waves to produce seas in the range of 8 to 11 ft, covering an area from 05N TO 22N to the W of 120W, and from 06N TO 27N between 111W AND 120W. This NW swell will gradually fade over the next 24 to 48 hours, and significantly reduce the area of 8 ft and higher seas across this zone. The next cold front has just reached the far NW corner of the forecast area at 30N140W this afternoon. NW swell generated by an accompanying low pressure system to the NW is moving into the area slightly ahead of the front. As the front shifts slowly SE through Tue, strong S to SW winds are expected N of 29N within 180 nm to the east of the front, where seas will build 9 to 10 ft. W of front over the NW corner W to NW 15 to 20 kt are expected with 8 to 12 ft NW swell. This front will propagate ESE over the next 48 hours and is expected to reach from 30N130W TO 27N132W TO 22N134W by Wed afternoon where it will begin to dissipate. $$ Stripling