000
AXPZ20 KNHC 050805
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
743 UTC Mon Mar 5 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The ITCZ axis extends from 04N94W to 03N100W to 05N120W to 
07N130W to 08N140W. No significant convection is noted.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

The NW swell from a recent cold front continues to propagate 
southward through the offshore waters of Baja California Sur as 
it decays through Mon. Weak high pressure over the NW Pacific 
will be replaced by another area of high pressure Mon night and 
Tue.

Gulf of Tehuantepec: Fresh winds are now noted with seas less
than 8 ft. Lighter winds will prevail Mon through Wed. A gale 
event is possible beginning on Wed night.

Gulf of California: A tight pres gradient on Mon will induce 
fresh to strong northerly winds from 24N to 29N, diminishing to 
moderate to fresh winds by early on Tue.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

The Fuego Volcano at 14.5N 90.9W over southern Guatemala is 
erupting, but volcanic ash activity is rather light and discrete 
as it remains over land.

In the Gulf of Papagayo, fresh to locally strong NE winds that 
have been pulsing through and downstream of the Gulf the last
several days during the overnight and early morning hours are 
expected to briefly pulse to 30 kt Mon night into early on Tue. 
as GFS/NAM model guidance suggest. Seas will build to 9 ft.

In the Gulf of Panama, fresh to locally strong northerly winds 
will pulse mainly during the overnight and early morning hours 
through Wed. Seas are expected to be in the 7 to 9 ft range.

Elsewhere, expect gentle to moderate winds and 4-7 ft seas
through the next couple of days.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 

An extensive area of NW to N swell producing seas in the range of 
8 to 10 ft is within 30N116W to 23N112W to 10N114W to 06N105W to
03N108W to 07N120W to 08N140W to 22N140W to 30N121W to 30N116W. 
This swell area will gradually shrink over the next 24 to 48 
hours.

The next cold front is forecast to reach the far NW corner of 
the area on Mon evening. The cold front will extend from a low 
pres area which will remain N of the discussion waters. An area 
of strong S to SW winds is expected N of 29N within 180 nm to 
the east of the front, with seas of 9 to 10 ft. W of front over 
the NW corner W to NW 15 to 20 kt are expected with 8 to 12 ft NW
swell. This front with NW swell will propogate E over the next 
48 hours.

$$
Formosa