000 AXPZ20 KNHC 042200 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sun Mar 4 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2145 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough is analyzed from 08N83W to 05N90W. The ITCZ axis continues from 05N90W to 03N100W to 07N123W to 07N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is seen within 180 nm N and 30 nm S of the axis between 120W and 125W. Scattered moderate convection is within 240 nm N of the axis between 114W and 120W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A dissipating cold front extends from south-central Arizona near 32N112W to across the northern Gulf of California and to near 26N118W. Associated winds southeast and northwest of the front are 20 kt or less, however NW swell producing seas in the range of 8 to 10 ft are propagating into the waters offshore of Baja California Norte. The NW swell will continue to propagate southward through the offshore waters of Baja California Sur as it decays through Mon. Weak high pressure behind the front will be replaced by another area of high pressure Mon night and Tue. Gulf of Tehuantepec: northerly winds will pulse to fresh to strong through early this evening, then diminish to fresh winds. Seas will be 8-9 ft until the winds diminish. Fairly quiet marine conditions will prevail through most of wed. In the long term, another stronger gale force gap wind event is possible beginning on Wed night as depicted by the GFS model. Gulf of California: Even though the above mentioned cold front is dissipated, a tight pres gradient will develop by early on Mon inducing fresh to strong northerly winds from 24N to 28N, diminishing to moderate to fresh winds by early on Tue. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... The Fuego Volcano at 14.5N 90.9W over southern Guatemala is erupting, but volcanic ash activity is rather light and discrete as it remains over land. In the Gulf of Papagayo, fresh to locally strong NE winds that have been pulsing through and downstream of the Gulf the last several days during the overnight and early morning hours are expected to briefly pulse to 30 kt late Mon night into early on Tue as GFS/NAM model guidance suggest. Resultant seas will occasionally build to around 9 ft. In the Gulf of Panama, fresh to locally strong northerly winds will pulse mainly during the overnight and early morning hours through Wed. Seas with these are expected to be in the range of 7 to 9 ft. Elsewhere, expect gentle to moderate winds and 4-7 ft seas through the next couple of days. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A cold front extends from southern Arizona to 32N113W to across the northern Gulf of California and southwestward to 26N118W where it begins to dissipate, transitioning to a dissipating stationary front at 26N125W and to near 24N131W. An extensive area of NW to N swell producing seas in the range of 8 to 10 ft is within the bounds of the points 32N116W to 21N113W to 06N114W to 08N127W to 07N140W to 28N140W to 32N116W. This swell area will gradually shrink over the next 24 to 48 hours. The pressure gradient between the aforementioned cold front and high pressure ridging to its is supporting fresh to locally strong trades across the above described area of NW to N swell. The cold front will gradually dissipate through early on Mon. The area of fresh to locally strong trades will gradually decrease in coverage like the swell area mentioned above during the upcoming week as the pressure gradient slackens. The next cold front is forecast to reach the far NW corner of the area on Mon night. The cold front will extend from a low pres area which will remain N of the discussion waters, and by early on the Tue the front is forecast to extend from near 32N135W to 27N138W to 24N140W. An area of strong S to SW winds is expected within 180 nm to the east of the front at that time north of 29N, with seas of 9 to 10 ft. Elsewhere, early on Tue, to the west of a line from 32N128W to 26N135W to 23N140W winds are forecast to be southerly 10 to 20 kt ahead of the front, and W to NW 15 to 20 kt behind the front with possible small areas of 20 to 25 kt winds over the far NW corner. Seas at that time within these wind areas are forecast to be 8 to 12 ft due to a large batch of NW swell. By Tue afternoon, the front is forecast to reach from near 32N133W to 26N137W, then become stationary to 22N140W. W winds of 20 to 25 kt are expected behind the front N of 29N and to the west of 139W along with seas of 10 to 12 ft. Winds elsewhere behind the front will be W to NW at fresh intensity, while southerly winds ahead of the front are expected to be mainly of moderate intensity with a small pocket of strong south winds continuing within 60 nm to the east of the front N of 29N. By Tue evening the batch of NW swell is forecast to have reached to west of a line from near 32N128W to 22N133W to 14N140W with induced seas of 8 to 12 ft, the highest to be confined over the far NW corner of the area. $$ Aguirre