000 AXPZ20 KNHC 040651 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 638 UTC Sun Mar 4 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough is analyzed from 08N83W to 05N90W. The ITCZ continues from 05N90W to 03N100W to 07N123W to 07N140W. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N to 08N between 109W and 120W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... In the Gulf of Tehuantepec, northerly winds will pulse fresh to strong through Sun afternoon before diminishing. Seas will be 8-9 ft until the winds diminish. Fairly tranquil marine conditions will prevail through early Wed, with another stronger gale force gap wind event possible Wed night through early Fri. A cold front extends from southern Arizona near 32N114W to 29N115W to 25N129W. Associated winds both ahead of and behind the front are 20 kt or less, however NW swell of 8-11 ft are propagating into the waters offshore of Baja California Norte. The front will gradually dissipate as it sinks southward while the swell spreads to the offshore waters of Baja California Sur. High pres ridging will build in the wake of the front through early next week and will then linger through mid-week. In the Gulf of California, the mentioned cold front will move into the northern portion tonight. SW-W fresh to strong winds will briefly develop from 29.5N to 30.5N with enhancement from funneling with a nearby gap area. By early Sun, winds N of 30.5N will become northerly and briefly increase to fresh to strong before diminishing by late morning. A tight pres gradient will then setup by early Mon with fresh to strong northerly flow S of 28N Mon morning and afternoon, diminishing to moderate to fresh thereafter. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... The Fuego Volcano at 14.5N 90.9W over S Guatemala is erupting, but volcanic ash activity has diminished and remains over land. In the Gulf of Papagayo, fresh to locally strong NE winds will continue to pulse through and downstream of the Gulf mainly during the overnight and early morning hours through the forecast period, approaching 30 kt Mon night. Associated seas will occasionally build to 7-9 ft. In the Gulf of Panama, fresh to locally strong northerly winds will pulse mainly during the overnight and early morning hours through the middle of next week. Associated seas will occasionally build to 6-8 ft. Elsewhere, expect gentle to moderate winds and 4-7 ft seas through the middle of next week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A cold front extends from southern Arizona to 29N115W to 25N129W. Associated NW-N swell of 8-11 ft is overrunning the front. Meanwhile a ridge S of the front is supporting fresh to locally strong trades just N of the convergence zone with surrounding 8-10 ft seas in mixed fresh NE swell and longer period NW swell from roughly 04N to 19N W of 110W-115W. The cold front will gradually dissipate Sunday and the two areas of swell will merge and mix through early next week. The area of fresh to locally strong trades will gradually shrink in coverage while diminishing slightly through the middle of next week as the pressure gradient slackens. The next cold front will likely reach 30N140W Mon night. The front will extend from a low pres area which will remain N of the discussion waters, however, associated winds both ahead of and behind the front will increase to fresh to strong in the NW corner near 30N140W, diminishing as the low shifts NE through the middle of next week. A new associated batch of NW swell will propagate SE through the area W of 130W through the middle of next week. $$ Formosa