000 AXPZ20 KNHC 011608 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1444 UTC Thu Mar 1 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ..SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning...Strong northerly winds will begin to surge across the Gulf of Tehuantepec by early Fri morning. The northerly winds will gradually increase to minimal gale force late Fri afternoon, and continue through early Sat morning, with seas building to 11 or 12 ft downstream of the Gulf. Fresh to strong northerly winds in the 25-30 kt will persist through Sun. Please refer to the East Pacific High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough is analyzed from 06N83W to 02N100W. The ITCZ continues from 02N100W to 04N120W to 05N140W. No significant convection. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Pacific waters w of the Baja Peninsula: A NW to S ridge extends across the far offshore waters from near 22N116W to 13N103W. Fresh N winds, with 6 to 9 ft seas primarily in long-period NW swell, is currently observed across the area. Expect the seas to subside to less than 8 ft briefly tonight. Another weak cold front will reach 30N120W on Fri evening with another round of NW swell following the front driving seas back up to 8 to 11 ft N of 23N on Sat, with 7 to 9 ft seas W of the Baja Peninsula late Sun, and less than 8 ft late Mon. Gulf of California: A Strong NW breeze observed from 22N to 28N E of 111W will diminish later today. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Volcanic Ash Advisory...The Fuego Volcano inland over Southern Guatemala near at 14.5N 90.9W continues to produce frequent volcanic ash puffs. The volcanic ash plume is moving to approximately 30 nm WNW of the summit. This is forecast to continue through the next 18 hour based on the latest advisory issued today at 1324 UTC. Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh to locally strong NE winds will continue to pulse through and downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo through the upcoming weekend, with seas building to 8 ft. Gulf of Panama: Fresh to locally strong winds are expected through the forecast period, particularly at night. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate offshore flow will prevail N of 07.5N while light to gentle SW winds are forecast S of 07.5N. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure of 1031 mb located well NW of the area extends a ridge SE across the forecast waters roughly from 30N140W to near the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between the high and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting mostly strong NE trades, and 8 to 13 ft seas, across the tropical waters W of a 115W. The aerial extent of the trades will slightly diminish over the next 24-48 hours as a new cold front reaches the northern forecast waters. Sea heights of 8 to 13 ft in mixed NE and NW swell are forecast to subside today, but mainly across the waters N of 20N. Another set of long period NW swell will follow a cold front forecast to reach the north waters early on Fri. This swell event will propagate S across the waters N of 23N W of 118W on Sat. $$ GR