000 AXPZ20 KNHC 010947 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Thu Mar 01 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0945 UTC. ..SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning...Strong northerly winds will begin to surge across the Gulf of Tehuantepec tonight. The northerly winds will gradually increase to minimal gale force late Fri afternoon, with seas building to perhaps as high as 12 ft just downstream of the gulf. The gale should end around sunrise on Sat winds with diminishing to a fresh breeze on Sun afternoon. Please refer to the East Pacific High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC for more details. The Fuego Volcano inland over Southern Guatemala near 14.5N 90.9W continues to emit volcanic ash. Mariners should exercise caution as visibility may be limited across the EPAC waters N of 14N between 91.5W and 93W. If mariners encounter volcanic ash, they are encouraged to report the observation to the National Weather Service by calling 305-229-4425. Please refer to the East Pacific High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFEP2/ FZPN03 KNHC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough is analyzed from 06N82W to 02N107W where scatterometer winds indicate an ITCZ develops and continues W to beyond 05N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 30 nm either side of a line from 05N88W to 05N94W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Pacific waters w of the Baja Peninsula: A NW to S ridge extends across the far offshore waters from near 22N116W to 13N103W. Fresh N winds, with 6 to 9 ft seas primarily in long-period NW swell, is currently observed across the area. Expect the seas to subside to less than 8 ft briefly tonight. Another weak cold front will reach 30N120W on Fri evening with another round of NW swell following the front driving seas back up to 8 to 11 ft N of 23N on Sat, with 7 to 9 ft seas W of the Baja Peninsula late Sun, and less than 8 ft late Mon. Gulf of California: A Strong NW breeze observed from 19N to 23N E of 111W including the Southern Gulf of California will diminish by this morning. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh to locally strong NE winds will continue to pulse through and downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo this week, with seas building to 8 ft near 10.5N88W. Gulf of Panama: Fresh to locally strong northerly winds are expected through this evening before diminishing. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate offshore flow will prevail N of 07.5N while light to gentle SW winds are forecast S of 07.5N. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure well NW of the area is currently supporting strong NE trades, and 8 to 13 ft seas, across the tropical waters from 09N to 19N W of 113W. The pressure gradient will relax on Thu and Fri with winds less than 20 kt on Fri night. Northerly swell in the form 9 to 11 ft seas elsewhere across the waters W of 113W will gradually subside today as another round of large northerly seas will propagate S across the subtropical waters tonight through the upcoming weekend. $$ Nelson