000 AXPZ20 KNHC 010348 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Thu Mar 01 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0345 UTC. ..SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning...Strong northerly winds will begin to surge across the Gulf of Tehuantepec on Thu night. The northerly winds will gradually increase to minimal gale force on Fri evening, with seas building to perhaps as high as 11 ft. The gale should end around sunrise on Sat winds diminishing to a fresh breeze on Sun afternoon. Please refer to the East Pacific High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC for more details. The Fuego Volcano inland over Southern Guatemala near 14.5N 90.9W continues to emit volcanic ash. Mariners should exercise caution as visibility may be limited across the EPAC waters N of 14N between 92W and 93W. If mariners encounter volcanic ash, they are encouraged to report the observation to the National Weather Service by calling 305-229-4425. Please refer to the East Pacific High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFEP2/ FZPN03 KNHC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough is analyzed from 06N79W to 04N95W where scatterometer winds indicate an ITCZ develops and continues SW to 02N103W, then turn NW to beyond 06N140W. Isolated showers are observed within 120 nm either side of a line from 06N84W to 05N93W and within 120 nm of a line from 12N128W to 09N140W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Pacific waters w of the Baja Peninsula: A NW to S ridge extends across the far offshore waters from 22N116W to 13N103W. Fresh N winds, with 6 to 9 ft seas in long-period NW swell, is currently observed across the waters. Expect the seas to subside to less than 8 ft briefly around Thu night. Another cold front will reach 30N120W on Fri evening with another round of NW swell following the front driving seas back up to 8 to 12 ft N of 23N on Sat, with 7 to 9 ft seas W of the Baja Peninsula late Sun. Gulf of California: A Strong NW breeze observed from 19N to 25N E of 111W including the Southern Gulf of California will diminish by late Thu morning. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh to locally strong NE winds will continue to pulse through and downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo this week, with seas building to 8 ft near 10.5N88W. Gulf of Panama: Fresh to locally strong northerly winds are expected through Thu evening before diminishing. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate offshore flow will prevail N of 07.5N while light to gentle SW winds are forecast S of 07.5N. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure well NW of the area is currently supporting mostly strong NE trades, and 8 to 13 ft seas, across the tropical waters from 09N to 19N W of 113W. Model guidance indicates that the pressure gradient will relax on Thu and Fri with winds less than 20 kt on Fri night. Northerly swell in the form 9 to 11 ft seas elsewhere across the waters W of 113W will gradually subside through Thu as another rough of large northerly seas propagating S across the subtropical waters on Thu night through the upcoming weekend. $$ Nelson