000 AXPZ20 KNHC 281558 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1512 UTC Wed Feb 28 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ..SPECIAL FEATURE... The Fuego Volcano inland over Southern Guatemala near at 14.3N 90.9W continues to produce frequent volcanic ash puffs. The volcanic ash plume is moving to approximately 100 nm W of the summit reaching the forecast waters N of 14N between 92W and 93W. The volcanic ash may reach to the surface limiting visibilities. Mariners should exercise caution. If mariners encounter volcanic ash, they are encouraged to report the observation to the National Weather Service by calling 305-229-4425. Please refer to the East Pacific High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC for more details on the ashfall advisory. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 06N87W TO 02N96W. the ITCZ continues from 02N96W to 03N120W to 06N140W. No significant convection. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Pacific waters w of the Baja Peninsula: A cold front extends from 30N110W to 21N127W. Fresh to strong NW-N winds follow the front with seas of 9-13 ft in NW to N swell. The remainder of the offshore forecast waters is under the influence of the ridge. The front will lose identity across these waters by this evening with fresh N to NE winds and 7 to 10 ft seas W of the entire Baja Peninsula. Then expect the seas to subside to less than 8 ft briefly around Thu evening. Another cold front will reach 30N120W on Fri evening with another round of NW swell following the front driving seas back up to 8 to 12 ft N of 23N on Sat, with 7 to 9 ft seas W of the Baja Peninsula late Sun. Gulf of Tehuantepec: Model guidance is suggesting the next strong event will begin on Thu night and continue through the weekend, with minimal gale conditions on Fri and Fri night with seas building to 11 or 12 ft. Gulf of California: A strong W breeze along 30N this morning will shift S across the central Gulf waters late today with these strong conditions shifting further S across the waters from 18N to 27N E of 110W tonight, to include the southern Gulf of California. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh to locally strong NE winds will continue to pulse through and downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo this week, with seas building to 8 ft near 10.5N88W. Gulf of Panama: Fresh to locally strong northerly winds are expected through this afternoon. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate offshore flow will prevail N of 07.5N while light to gentle SW winds are forecast S of 07.5N. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure well NW of the area is currently supporting mostly strong NE trades, and 8 to 13 ft seas, across the tropical waters W of a line from 24N140W to 16N113W to 08N140W. Model guidance indicates that the pressure gradient will relax on Thu and Fri as the high pressure slightly weaken while moving westward, and a new cold front reaches the northern forecast waters. Long-period NW swell is supporting 8 to 15 ft seas across the Pacific waters from 24N to 32N between 117W and 140W. These high seas are forecast to quickly subside through Thu, followed by another rough of large northerly seas propagating S across the subtropical waters on Thu night through the upcoming weekend. $$ GR