000 AXPZ20 KNHC 281519 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1512 UTC Wed Feb 28 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ..SPECIAL FEATURE... The Fuego Volcano inland over Southern Guatemala near at 14.3N 90.9W continues to produce frequent volcanic ash puffs. The volcanic ash plume is moving tp approximately 100 nm W of the summit reaching the forecast waters N of 14N between 92W and 93W. The volcanic ash may reach to the surface limiting visibilities. Mariners should exercise caution. If mariners encounter volcanic ash, they are encouraged to report the observation to the National Weather Service by calling 305-229-4425. Please refer to the East Pacific High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC for more details on the ashfall advisory. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... Scatterometer winds indicate an ITCZ develops at 04N86W and continues SW to 02N101W, then turns w-NW to beyond 05N140W. Isolated moderate to strong convection is observed to the S of 02N between 93W and 101W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted along the ITCZ within 150 nm either side of a line from 08N130W to 08N140W, and N of the ITCZ within 150 nm of 14N127W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Pacific waters w of the Baja Peninsula: A NW to S ridge extends across the far offshore waters from 20N116W to 13N102W with a series of weakening cold fronts forecast to sweep E across the waters N of the ridge this week. Fresh NW winds, with 8 to 13 ft seas in long-period NW swell, is currently observed across the northern waters behind a weakening cold front extending from 27N114W to 21N127W. The front will lose identity across these waters by this evening with fresh N to NE winds and 7 to 10 ft seas W of the entire Baja Peninsula. Then expect the seas to subside to less than 8 ft briefly around Thu evening. Another cold front will reach 30N120W on Fri evening with another round of NW swell following the front driving seas back up to 8 to 12 ft N of 23N on Sat, with 7 to 9 ft seas W of the Baja Peninsula late Sun. Gulf of Tehuantepec: Model guidance is suggesting the next strong event will begin on Thu night and continue through the weekend, with minimal gale conditions on Fri evening with seas building to 11 ft. Gulf of California: A strong W breeze along 30N at sunrise will diminish with the strong conditions shifting S across the central gulf waters late today with these strong conditions shifting further S across the waters from 18N to 24N E of 110W, to include the southern Gulf of California. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh to locally strong NE winds will continue to pulse through and downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo this week, with seas building to 8 ft near 10.5N88W. Gulf of Panama: Fresh to locally strong northerly winds are expected through this afternoon. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate offshore flow will prevail N of 07.5N while light to gentle SW winds are forecast S of 07.5N. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure well NW of the area is currently supporting mostly strong NE trades, and 8 to 13 ft seas, across the tropical waters from 08N to 21N W of 117W. Model guidance indicates that the pressure gradient will relax on Thu and Fri. Long-period NW swell will support 8 to 15 ft seas across the Pacific waters from 24N to 32N between 117W and 140W at sunrise on Wed, with the seas then quickly subside through Thu, followed by another rough of large northerly seas propagating S across the subtropical waters on Thu night through the upcoming weekend. $$ GR