000 AXPZ20 KNHC 262100 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1932 UTC Mon Feb 26 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE...The Fuego Volcano inland over Southern Guatemala near at 14.3N 90.9W is erupting. A plume of volcanic ash may reach to the surface across the Pacific waters N of 13N between 91W and 93W. The GOES-16 RGB Geocolor Imagery show the ongoing volcanic ash emissions. Low level visibilities may be reduced to 6 nm or less. Mariners should exercise caution. If mariners encounter volcanic ash, they are encouraged to report the observation to the National Weather Service by calling 305-229-4425. Please refer to the East Pacific High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC for more details on the ashfall advisory. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The ITCZ extends from 05N85W to 03N100W to 06N110W to 08N120W to 08N140W. A cluster of moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 10N to 12N between 124W and 130W. The monsoon trough is not evident at this time. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Pacific waters W of the Baja California Peninsula: A ridge dominates the offshore waters of Baja California producing gentle to moderate NW to N winds, with seas of 4-6 ft. Winds will begin to increase across the waters N of 29N tonight as a cold front reaches the area. The front will extend from 31N115W to 24N124W to 25N132W by early Tue afternoon, and will be E of the area by early Wed afternoon. Long period NW swell will follow the front, building seas to 8 to 12 ft across the waters N of 27N W of 117W by Tue afternoon. This swell event will continue to propagate across waters W of the Baja California Peninsula Tue night into Wed, with seas of 12-14 ft N of 27N W of 118W. Gulf of California: The aforementioned cold front will move across the northern Gulf of California. Fresh to strong winds are expected on either side of the front on Tue. As the front moves E of the area, expect fresh to strong NW-N winds across the central waters first, then across the southern Gulf on Wed. Late on Wed , the fresh to strong winds are forecast to also affect the waters between Los Cabos and Cabo Corrientes, including Las Tres Marias Islands. Gulf of Tehuantepec: Fresh to locally strong northerly winds are expected across the Gulf of Tehuantepec during the overnight and early morning hours with the assistance of the nocturnal drainage flow through Thu. Winds are forecast to increase to 25-30 kt by Thu night into Fri morning as a cold front moves across the western Gulf of Mexico. Seas are expected to build to 10 ft downstream near 14.5N95W by Fri night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh to strong NE winds will continue to pulse through and downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo through Sat, with seas building to 8 ft. Gulf of Panama: Fresh northerly winds and seas of 7 or 8 ft are expected during the overnight and early morning hours through the remainder of the work-week. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate offshore flow will prevail N of 07.5N while light to gentle SW winds are forecast S of 07.5N. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Strong high pressure of 1041 mb located NW of the area near 38N146W extends a ridge SE across the forecast waters to near the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between the high and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting fresh to strong NE trades, and 8 to 11 ft seas, across the tropical waters N of the convergence zone and W of 115W. These marine conditions will persist over the next 48 hours with seas of 8-13 ft within the area of the trade wind flow. As previously mentioned, a cold front will move across the N waters tonight through Tue night followed by fresh to strong NW-N winds and building seas of up to 14 ft in northerly swell. Model guidance indicates that the pressure gradient will relax some on Thu as the high pressure slightly weaken and a new cold front reaches the northern forecast waters. $$ GR