000 AXPZ20 KNHC 261948 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1932 UTC Mon Feb 26 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE...The Fuego Volcano inland over Southern Guatemala near at 14.3N 90.9W is erupting. A plume of volcanic ash may reach to the surface across the Pacific waters N of 13N between 91W and 93W. The GOES-16 RGB Geocolor Imagery show the ongoing volcanic ash emissions. Low level visibilities may be reduced to 6 nm or less. Mariners should exercise caution. If mariners encounter volcanic ash, they are encouraged to report the observation to the National Weather Service by calling 305-229-4425. Please refer to the East Pacific High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC for more details on the ashfall advisory. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The ITCZ extends from 05N85W to 03N100W to 06N110W to 08N120W to 08N140W. A cluster of moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 10N to 12N between 124W and 130W. The monsoon trough is not evident at this time. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Pacific waters W of the Baja Peninsula: A ridge dominates the region producing moderate NW to N winds, with seas of 5-7 ft. A cold front will move across the northern offshore waters on Tue, followed by long period NW swell and building seas of 8 to 12 ft across the waters N of 27N W of 117W by Tue afternoon. This swell event will continue to propagate across waters W of the Baja Peninsula on Wed, with seas building to 12-14 ft N of 26N. Gulf of Tehuantepec: Gentle onshore flow is expected during the daylight hours with gentle offshore flow during the overnight hours through Thu, with the exception of moderate northerly drainage flow at tonight. Model guidance is suggesting the next strong event will begin on Thu night with seas building to 10 ft downstream near 14.5N95W. Gulf of California: A cold front moving across the northern Gulf will bring increasing winds on Tue. Expect fresh to strong winds ahead and behind the front. On Wed, this winds will reach the central waters. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh to locally strong NE winds will continue to pulse through and downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo through Sat, with seas building to 8 ft on Wed morning. Gulf of Panama: Fresh northerly winds are expected at night through Wed night. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate offshore flow will prevail N of 07.5N while light to gentle SW winds are forecast S of 07.5N. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Strong high pressure located NW of the area near 40N148W is currently supporting fresh to locally strong NE trades, and 8 to 11 ft seas, across the tropical waters N of the convergence zone and W of 115W. The pressure gradient is forecast to tighten today with a strong NE breeze, with 8 to 12 ft seas, across the Pacific waters W of a line from 26N140W to 14N120W to 08N140W. Model guidance indicates that the pressure gradient will begin to relax on Thu. The high pressure will move SE reaching a postion near 37N144W in about 24 hours. $$ GR