000 AXPZ20 KNHC 260406 TWDEP -Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Mon Feb 26 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE...The Fuego Volcano inland over Southern Guatemala near at 14.3N 90.9W is erupting. A plume of volcanic ash may reach to the surface across the Pacific waters N of 13.5N and E of 93W. Low level visibilities may be reduced to 6 nm or less. Mariners should exercise caution. If mariners encounter volcanic ash, they are encouraged to report the observation to the National Weather Service by calling 305-229- 4425. Please refer to the East Pacific High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC for more details on the ashfall advisory. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends SW from the Pacific coast of Panama at 08N82W to across the Galapagos Islands to 01N97W where scatterometer winds indicate a transition to an ITCZ, which continues NW to 09N120W, then turns SW to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed along the trough within 75 nm of 0.5n90w and along the ITCZ within 150 nm either side of a line from 10.5N122W to 10N130W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Pacific waters w of the Baja Peninsula: A NW to S ridge extends across the far offshore waters from 20N116W to 13.5N103W. Moderate NW to N winds, with 4 to 7 ft seas, are observed across the area. The next round of NW swell in the form of 7 to 10 ft seas will reach 30N120W on Mon afternoon, with fresh to strong NW winds arriving on Tue morning as seas build to 8 to 12 ft across the waters N of 27N W of 118W. Expect fresh NW winds and 8 to 12 ft seas N of 24N on Wed morning, and moderate N winds and 6 to 90 ft seas W of the entire Baja Peninsula on Wed night. Expect the seas to subside to less than 8 ft briefly late Thu, with another round of NW swell reaching 30N120W on Fri. Gulf of Tehuantepec: Gentle onshore flow expected during the daylight hours with gentle offshore during the overnight hours through Thu, except moderate northerly drainage flow forecast on Mon night. Model guidance is suggesting the next strong event will begin on Thu night with seas building to 10 ft downstream near 14.5N95W. Gulf of California: Gentle winds are gradually clocking to S and expected to increase to a strong SW breeze along 30N on Mon night ahead of the next cold front sweeping across the northern gulf waters on Tue with strong NW winds forecast behind the front on Tue evening. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh to locally strong NE winds will continue to pulse through and downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo through Sat, with seas building to 7 ft. Gulf of Panama: Fresh northerly winds are expected on Mon, Tue and Wed nights. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate offshore flow will prevail N of 07.5N while light to gentle SW winds are forecast S of 07.5N. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Strong high pressure well NW of the area is currently supporting fresh to locally strong NE trades, and 7 to 11 ft seas, across the tropical waters N of the convergence zone and W of 115W. The pressure gradient is forecast to tighten on Mon with a strong NE breeze, with 8 to 12 ft seas, across the Pacific waters from 09N to 24N W of 129W by early Tue, and from 08N to 20N W of 113W. Model guidance indicates that the pressure gradient will begin to relax on Thu. Around round of strong northerly winds will reach along 32N between 120W and 130W on Mon evening. These winds will diminish to a fresh N breeze late Tue, but expect 8 to 15 ft seas across the Pacific waters from 24N to 32N between 117W and 140W on Tue night, with the seas quickly subsiding on Wed and Thu. $$ Nelson