000 AXPZ20 KNHC 252100 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1842 UTC Sun Feb 25 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE...The Fuego Volcano inland over Southern Guatemala near at 14.3N 90.9W is erupting. A plume of volcanic ash may reach to the surface across the Pacific waters N of 13.5N and E of 93W. Low level visibilities may be reduced to 6 nm or less. Mariners should exercise caution. If mariners encounter volcanic ash, they are encouraged to report the observation to the National Weather Service by calling 305-229- 4425. Please refer to the East Pacific High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC for more details on the ashfall advisory. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 02N86W to 02N107W to 03N112W. The ITCZ extends from 03N112W to 09N128W to 08N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 01N to 03N between 90W and 110W. Scattered moderate convection was noted from 08N to 11N between 125W and 130W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Pacific waters W of the Baja Peninsula: Strong northerly winds will develop along 30N on Mon night into Tue. Large NW swell will propagate through the waters W of the Baja Peninsula California on Tue and Wed. Seas will peak near 14 ft N of 28N Tue night into Wed before starting to subside through Thu. A fresh set of NW swell will move into the waters off the coast of Baja California Norte Fri night. Gulf of Tehuantepec: Winds are forecast to increase over the Gulf Thu night and Fri. Gulf of California: Winds will increase to a strong SW breeze along 30N on Mon night ahead of the next cold front sweeping across the northern gulf waters on Tue. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh to locally strong NE winds will continue to pulse through and downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo through Fri, with seas building to 7 ft. Gulf of Panama: Mostly moderate nocturnal drainage flow is then forecast tonight with fresh winds expected to resume on Mon and Tue nights. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate offshore flow will prevail N of 08N while light to gentle SW winds are forecast S of 08N. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure of 1041 mb centered NW of the area near 39N148W extends a ridge SE to near 20N110W. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting fresh to strong trades north of the ITCZ and west of 120W. The pressure gradient will further tighten early this week as the high pressure center shifts closer to the forecast area. This will expand areal coverage of fresh to strong winds across the forecast waters, with seas building to 8 to 13 ft across the Pacific waters from 08N to 24N W of 129W by early Tue. Northerly swell will propagate into the northern waters Monday night, building seas to 8 to 15 ft seas across the Pacific waters north of 22N between 118W and 132W by Tue night. $$ AL