000 AXPZ20 KNHC 240944 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Sat Feb 24 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0945 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE...The Fuego Volcano inland over Southern Guatemala near at 14.5N 90.9W is erupting. A plume of volcanic ash may reach to the surface across the Pacific waters N of 14N and E of 93W. Low level visibilities may be reduced to 6 nm or less. Mariners should exercise caution. If mariners encounter volcanic ash, they are encouraged to report the observation to the National Weather Service by calling 305-229-4425. Please refer to the East Pacific High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC for more details on the ashfall advisory. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 03N90W to 03N112W where scatterometer winds indicate a transition to an ITCZ, which continues W to 02N123W to 05N130W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed within area bounded by a line from 17N122W to 13N105W to 03N135W to 17N122W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Pacific waters w of the Baja Peninsula: A W to E ridge extends across the offshore waters from 22N116W to 14N100W. Fresh to strong NW winds, with 7 to 10 ft seas, are observed N of 25N within 75 nm W of Baja California Peninsula. These conditions will spread southward to along 24N and also expand seaward to 180 nm this morning before beginning to diminish. Associated seas should subside to less than 8 ft by late Sun night, with another batch of strong NW winds, accompanied by large NW swell, arriving at 30N120W late Mon night. Expect fresh NW winds and 8 to 15 ft seas N of 24N on Tue evening, and moderate N winds and 7 to 10 ft seas w of the entire Baja Peninsula late Wed. Gulf of Tehuantepec: Gentle onshore flow expected during the daylight hours with gentle offshore during the overnight hours for the next several days. Gulf of California: Fresh to strong NW winds currently across the far northern waters will spread southward across the waters N of 26N today. Strong NW winds are forecast across the waters S of 28.5N this evening, with seas building to 8 ft across the longest fetch waters. Except fresh NW flow across the entire gulf waters on Sun. The pressure gradient will quickly relax on Sun Mon, with gentle winds gradually clocking to S, except increasing to strong along 30N on Mon night ahead of the next cold front sweeping across the northern gulf waters on Tue with brief strong NW winds behind the front on Tue night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh to locally strong NE winds will continue to pulse through and downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo through Thu, with seas building to 7 ft. Gulf of Panama: Mostly moderate nocturnal drainage flow is then forecast tonight and on Sun night with fresh winds expected to resume on Mon and Tue nights. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate offshore flow will prevail N of 08N while light to gentle SW winds are forecast S of 08N. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Strong high pressure well NW of the area will continue to support fresh to locally strong NE trades, and 7 to 11 ft seas, across the tropical waters N of the convergence zone and W of 115W through Sun when the pressure gradient is forecast to further tighten. Expect a strong NE breeze, with 8 to 12 ft seas, across the Pacific waters from 08N to 24N W of 129W by early Tue. Northerly swell, in the form of 7 to 10 ft seas, will continue to propagate S across the waters from 25N to 32N between 117W and 130W through tonight before beginning to subside. Around round of strong northerly winds will reach along 32N between 120W and 130W on Mon night. Although the winds will diminish to a fresh N breeze on Tue, expect 8 to 16 ft seas across the Pacific waters from 22N to 32N between 117W and 132W on Tue night. $$ Nelson