000 AXPZ20 KNHC 202125 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1852 UTC Tue Feb 20 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2045 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 08N74W to 06N82W to 07N91W to 05N101W. The ITCZ continues from 05N101W to 03N117W to 06N136W to beyond 05N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is present from 07N to 11N between 128W and 140W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... As of 1800 UTC, a cold front passes over the southern Gulf of California from 28N110W to 25N111W. The front has begun to weaken and will dissipate tonight as it continues E over the southern Gulf of California and interior NW Mexico. Light to moderate winds and seas of 1 to 3 ft will generally prevail in the Gulf of California tonight through Thu. Another cold front will head toward northern Baja on Thu evening. SW to W winds will develop ahead of the front over the Gulf of california N of 30N Thu night and Fri morning, then subside as the front continues on toward the SE and weakens. High pressure centered N of the discussion area will generate moderate NW to N winds over the waters W of the Baja Peninsula tonight, accompanied by NW swell maintaining seas of 8 to 12 ft N of 24N. This area of 8-ft seas will continue to spread SE across the offshore waters W of Baja through Wed with seas measuring 8-10 ft. The area of 8 ft seas will begin to decay but reach as far SE as the Revillagigedo Islands by Wed night. Strong high pressure building to the N of the discussion area will generate a large area of fresh to strong winds from 12N to 23N W of 115W Wed night through Fri. This will maintain an area of corresponding seas running between 8 and 12 ft. Gulf of Tehuantepec: mainly light and variable winds are expected over the next couple of days, with seas generally remaining between 3 and 5 ft. Northerly winds will briefly increase to 20-25 kt late Thu night and Fri morning, with seas peaking around 8 ft during this brief gap wind event. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Strong NE winds will continue to pulse through and downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo to between 90W and 92W through Sun morning, with seas building to 9 ft during the overnight and early morning hours. Gulf of Panama: Moderate to fresh N winds are generally expected across the western Gulf of Panama through Sat. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate offshore flow will prevail N of 05N while light to gentle SW winds are forecast S of 05N. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Strong 1036 mb high pressure centered well N of the area near 36N140W ridges SE across the forecast waters to near the Revillagigedo Islands. This system will be reinforced by stronger 1042 mb high pres arriving near 45N145W by Thu evening. The pressure gradient between the high and lower pressure associated with the ITCZ will result in fresh to strong trade winds across the tropical waters W of 115W. Long period NW swell dominates waters roughly to the N of 13N and W of 110W, while cross equatorial SW swell is affecting the remainder of the forecast area, reaching the coast of Mexico S of Cabo Corrientes, and the coast of Central America. Seas of 8 ft or greater will envelop the waters N of 08N W of 110W by Thu evening. Strong high pres building to the N of the discussion area will maintain an area of strong winds and seas to 12 ft from 12N to 20N W of 120W Fri and Fri night. This area will slowly shift W on Sat and Sun. $$ CAM