000
AXPZ20 KNHC 182157
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion 
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sun Feb 18 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is 
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and 
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Gulf of California GALE WARNING: Strong to near gale force SW-W 
winds, with seas to near 8 ft, will develop across the waters 
from 29.5N to 31.5N on Sun evening ahead of a cold front that 
will pass E across the far northern gulf waters tonight through 
Mon night. Near gale force northerly winds are also forecast NW 
of the front on Mon and Mon night, except for a narrow band of 
minimal gale winds expected briefly on Mon night. Seas will 
build to 10 ft in the longer fetch waters N of 30N. The front 
will move E of the area on Tue, with marine conditions quickly 
improving thereafter.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A surface trough extends SW from the Pacific coast of Costa Rica 
at 09N85W to 07N100W where scatterometer winds indicate a 
transition to an ITCZ, which continues W to beyond 07.5N140W. A 
few TSTMS are flaring along the Pacific coast of Colombia within 
30 nm either side of a line from 06.5N77W to 01N90W. Similar 
convection is observed within 30 nm of a line from 09N83W to 
05N87W.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A gentle variable breeze continues around a weak N to S 
orientated trough analyzed from 29N118W to 24N115W.  A cold 
front will sweep quickly E across the discussion area N of 28N 
through tonight Mon eroding the trough.  Strengthening high 
pressure in the wake of the front will result in a strong NW 
breeze spreading SE across the waters W of the Baja Norte on Mon 
into early Mon night, accompanied by NW swell building seas to 8 
to 15 ft. The pressure gradient will relax on Tue with seas 
subsiding to less than 8 ft on Wed night. 

Gulf of Tehuantepec: High pressure across the Gulf of Mexico 
will support fresh to strong northerly surges through the Gulf 
of Tehuantepec tonight, with these strong northerly winds 
resuming on Thu evening.
  
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Gulf of Papagayo: Strong NE winds will continue to pulse through 
and downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo through this week,
with seas building to 9 ft as downstream as 10N91W.

Gulf of Panama: Fresh to locally strong nocturnal N winds are 
expected across the western Gulf of Panama tonight with these 
conditions extending as far S as 05N80W. Mostly fresh 
nocturnal drainage flow is then forecast through Fri night.  

Elsewhere, gentle to moderate offshore flow will prevail N of 
09N while light to gentle SW winds are forecast S of 09N. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 

A broad ridge covers the discussion waters N of the ITCZ and W 
of 120W, with 6 to 8 ft seas in mixing swell. Isolated moderate 
to strong convection has been flaring within 90 nm either side 
of a line from 20N118W to 14.5N128W. The pressure gradient will 
tighten tonight, with fresh to strong trades developing across 
the tropical waters W of 125W, while fresh to strong N winds 
will spread S across the northern waters in the wake of a cold 
front sweeping E across the Baja Peninsula. Conditions will 
improve briefly across the sub-tropics on Thu, the deteriorate 
again behind another cold front on Fri.  
  
$$
Nelson