000
AXPZ20 KNHC 180907
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
724 UTC Sun Feb 18 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A surface trough extends SW from the Pacific coast of Costa Rica 
at 10N85W to 06N90W TO 04N100W where scatterometer winds 
indicate a transition to an ITCZ, that continues W-NW from
04N100W to 06N120W to 07N140W. No significant convection is
noted.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A gentle variable breeze continues around a weak N to S 
orientated trough analyzed from 22N120W to 17N123W. There is a 
chance a weak surface low will form along the trough near 27N116W
tonight and persist through Mon. A moderate to fresh N breeze is
currently observed elsewhere E of the trough to along 105W. A 
cold front will sweep quickly E across the area N of 28N tonight 
through Mon night eroding the weak low and its parent trough. A 
post-frontal ridge will set up from 23N116W to 18N107W by Mon 
evening as high pressure strengthens resulting in a fresh to 
strong NW breeze spreading SE across the waters W of the Baja 
Norte on Mon, accompanied by NW swell building seas to 8 to 13 
ft. The pressure gradient will relax some on Tue. 
 
Gulf of California: Strong SW-W winds will develop across the 
waters from 29.5N to 31N on Sun evening in association with a 
cold front. The strong to near gale winds will clock to the NW 
behind the front and persist through Mon night.

Gulf of Tehuantepec: High pressure across the Gulf of Mexico 
will support fresh to strong northerly surges through the Gulf 
of Tehuantepec through Mon, with these strong northerly winds 
resuming on Thu evening.
  
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Gulf of Papagayo: Strong to occasionally near gale force NE 
winds will continue to pulse through and downstream of the Gulf 
of Papagayo through the upcoming week, with seas building to 9 
ft as far SW as 10N91W.

Gulf of Panama: Fresh nocturnal N winds expected through Thu 
night.  

Elsewhere, gentle to moderate offshore flow will prevail N of 
09N while light to gentle SW winds forecast S of 09N. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 

A broad ridge covers the discussion waters N of the ITCZ and W 
of 120W, with 6 to 8 ft seas in mixing swell. These seas will 
gradually subside through Sun, then build again beginning Sun 
night as strong trades develop across the tropical waters W of 
130W while strong N winds spread S across the northern waters in 
the wake of a cold front sweeping E across the Baja Peninsula.  
  
$$
Formosa