000 AXPZ20 KNHC 170910 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 740 UTC Sat Feb 17 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 10N84W to low pres 1011 mb near 05N94W to low pres 1012 mb near 04N107W. The ITCZ continues from 04N108W to 06N120W to 05N130W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N to 08N between 84W and 87W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Large high pressure centered N of the area near 39N139W and weak troughing over NW Mexico is maintaining moderate to fresh NW winds across much of the area. A surface trough associated with deep layer troughing stretches from 24N118W to 22N121W to 18N122W. The trough will weaken during the next 24 hours as the associated mid to upper-level trough weakens and lifts out to the NE. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm of the trough axis. Scattered showers associated with the surface trough will also advect NE across the waters adjacent to the Baja Peninsula. A cold front heading E across Baja California Norte will usher in strong winds and seas to 13 ft for the waters N of 28N Mon. Winds and seas behind the front will quickly subside Tue and Wed. Gulf of Tehuantepec: A weak ridge extends SW from Florida over the Gulf of Mexico. The high will remain strong enough to support fresh to strong winds over the Gulf for the next few days, primarily during nocturnal hours when drainage flow is prevalent. Gulf of California: A cold front will approach Baja California Norte Sun night. SW gap winds ahead of the front over the northern Gulf are expected to strengthen to 25 kt kt ahead of the front through Mon night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Strong NE to E winds will continue pulsing to 30 kt the next few nights. Downstream seas will build to 8-9 ft during the strongest winds each night. The area of high seas downstream from the Gulf of Papagayo will reach 90W. Gulf of Panama: Moderate to fresh N to NE winds will generally prevail over the region through the middle of next week. Winds just S of the Azuero Peninsula could become locally strong every night through Tue night. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate offshore flow will prevail north of 09N, and light to gentle SSW winds will generally prevail south of 08N. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A tight pressure gradient between a surface trough and strong high pressure centered well NNW of the area near 39N139W is supporting fresh to strong NE winds from 16N to 25N W of 130W, with seas of 9 ft. Winds in this region will increase again Sun night through Wed as high pressure to the N rebuilds. $$ Formosa