000
AXPZ20 KNHC 160935
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Fri Feb 16 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0600 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A surface trough extends from 09N84W to 04N93W to 06N107W. The 
ITCZ continues from 06N107W to 07N140W. No significant 
convection is currently associated with the ITCZ.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

High pressure N of the area and weak troughing over NW Mexico is 
maintaining gentle to moderate NW winds across much of the area. 
A surface trough associated with a mid level trough south of 29N 
between 120W and 125W will weaken during the next 24-48 hours. 
Scattered showers associated with the trough will continue to 
advect NE across the waters north of 18N into Baja California.

Gulf of Tehuantepec: A ridge in the Gulf of Mexico will weaken 
during the next 3 days and SE flow will become more pronounced 
north of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec, allowing northerly winds in 
the Gulf of Tehuantepec to gradually become light and variable 
by this weekend. 

Gulf of California: Winds will become moderate northerly today 
as the pressure gradient tightens from strong high pressure to 
the NW. The gradient will then weaken this weekend as the high 
weakens, allowing conditions to improve. Looking ahead, a cold 
front will approach Baja California Norte Sun night, with SW 
winds in the northern Gulf expected to strengthen to around 25 
kt ahead of the front.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Gulf of Papagayo: Strong nocturnal NE to E winds will pulse to 
30 kt the next few nights. Downstream seas will build to 8-9 ft 
during the strongest winds each night. The area of high seas 
will merge with seas generated downstream from high winds in the 
Gulf of Tehuantepec through this afternoon.

Gulf of Panama: Winds and seas will gradually subside today as 
high pressure and strong winds in the SW Caribbean diminish, 
becoming moderate to fresh by this evening, and max seas will 
subside to 6-7 ft.

Elsewhere, gentle to moderate offshore flow will prevail north 
of 09N, and light to gentle SSW winds will generally prevail 
south of 09N.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Low pressure is centered near 18N125W with an associated surface 
trough extending northeast from the low to 24N119W. Extensive 
cloudiness with scattered embedded showers associated with this 
system is occurring east of the surface trough axis from 14N to 
28N between 116W and 120W. These showers continue to develop 
ahead of a deep mid level trough south of 29N between 120W and 
125W. A tight pressure gradient between the trough and strong 
high pressure centered well NNW of the area is supporting fresh 
to strong NE winds in the NW quadrant of the low within 180 nm 
of a line from 23N122W to 18N128W, with seas of 8 to 10 ft.

The pressure gradient between the high and lower pressure 
associated with the convergence zone is supporting fresh trades 
elsewhere, generally between 15N and 25N west of 115W. Seas are 
6 to 8 ft in primarily NW swell. Trade winds will slowly weaken, 
and allow residual seas to steadily diminish into this weekend.

$$
Mundell