000 AXPZ20 KNHC 160325 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Thu Feb 15 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 10N84W to 04N94W to 05N107W. The ITCZ continues from 05N107W to 08N118W, then resumes from 10N129W to 08N140W. No significant convection is currently associated with the ITCZ. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... High pressure N of the area and weak troughing over NW Mexico is maintaining gentle to moderate NW winds across much of the area. A surface trough associated with a mid level trough south of 29N between 120W and 125W will weaken during the next 24-48 hours. Scattered showers associated with the trough will continue to advect NE across the waters north of 20N into Baja California. Gulf of Tehuantepec: A ridge in the Gulf of Mexico will weaken during the next 2-3 days and SE flow will become more defined north of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec, allowing northerly winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec to gradually become light and variable by this weekend. Gulf of California: Winds will become moderate and northerly on Fri as the pressure gradient tightens from strong high pressure to the NW. The gradient will weaken this weekend as the high weakens, allowing conditions to improve. Looking ahead, a cold front will approach Baja California Norte Sun night, with SW winds in the northern Gulf expected to strengthen to 25 kt ahead of the front. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Strong nocturnal NE to E winds will pulse to 25-30 kt tonight and Fri night. Downstream seas will build to 8- 10 ft during the strongest winds tonight. The area of 8 ft seas will merge with seas generated downstream from high winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Fri. Gulf of Panama: Winds and seas will gradually subside overnight as high pressure and strong winds in the SW Caribbean diminish, becoming moderate to fresh winds by Fri evening, and seas to 8 ft will subside to 6-7 ft. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate offshore flow will prevail north of 09N, and light to gentle SSW winds will generally prevail south of 09N. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Low pressure is centered near 18N125W with an associated surface trough extending northeast from the low to 26N116W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection associated with this system is occurring east of the surface trough axis from 15N to 25N between 117W and 120W. This convection continues to develop ahead of a deep mid level trough south of 29N between 120W and 125W. A tight pressure gradient between the trough and strong high pressure centered well NNW of the area is supporting fresh to strong NE winds in the NW quadrant of the low within 180 nm of a line from 23N122W to 18N128W, with seas of 8 to 10 ft. The pressure gradient between the high and lower pressure associated with the convergence zone is supporting fresh trades elsewhere, generally between 15N and 25N west of 115W. Seas are 6 to 8 ft in primarily NW swell. Trade winds will slowly weaken, and allow residual seas to steadily diminish this weekend. $$ Mundell