000 AXPZ20 KNHC 142125 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2130 UTC Wed Feb 14 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2030 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: High pressure ridging southward across eastern Mexico and the adjacent waters, to the east of the Sierra Madre Oriental range, is supporting gale force winds offshore and across the Gulf of Tehuantepec. The gale force winds will likely diminish Thu by afternoon as the ridging weakens, with a round of strong to near gale force winds Thu night, and then fresh to strong winds pulsing each night thereafter. Gulf of Papagayo Gale Warning: Offshore northeast winds will pulse to minimal gale force in the offshore Gulf of Papagayo waters, with brief possible lulls during the afternoon hours. A surrounding area of fresh to strong winds, including the Gulf of Fonseca will also persist. Downstream seas will build to 8-11 ft during the strongest winds through Thu evening. Winds are expected to decrease below gale force by midday Friday, with pulsing to strong to near gale expected each night thereafter through the weekend. Please refer to the East Pacific High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC for more details on both gale warnings. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from Panama near 08N81W to 02N100W. The ITCZ axis continues from 02N100W to 07N120W to beyond 08N140W. No significant convection is noted. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for more details on the gale warning in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Light and variable winds and seas of 2 ft or less will then prevail across the Gulf of California through tonight, becoming northerly and increasing to moderate to locally fresh by the end of the week as the pressure gradient tightens across the region. Elsewhere across the open Pacific offshore waters of Mexico, light to moderate winds will prevail through the week, increasing to near fresh offshore of Cabo Corrientes by the end of the week. Seas will mainly be 4-6 ft in mixed southwest and northwest swell. An inverted trough near 120W will lift NE across the offshore waters through the end of the week, with weak low pressure possibly and briefly developing along it. This trough will support scattered showers and thunderstorms. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Please see the Special Features section above for more details on the gale warning in the Gulf of Papagayo. For the Gulf of Panama, fresh to strong northerly winds will continue to extend southward along the Azuero Peninsula with a locally tight pressure gradient. These winds will persist through early Fri, even approaching 30 kt around 06Z tonight. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate offshore flow will prevail north of 09N, and light to gentle south-southwest winds will generally prevail south of 09N. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A surface trough is analyzed from 23N120W through a 1014 mb low near 18N123W to 15N128W. This surface feature is interacting with an upper trough in the area to support scattered moderate convection from 12N to 20N between 113W and 117W, and scattered thunderstorms from 09N to 20N between 117W and 125W. Fresh to occasionally strong winds will develop on the western side of the trough tonight through Fri as the pressure gradient tightens between high pressure to the NW and the trough. These winds will support an ongoing area of 8 to 9 ft seas to the north and west of the trough over our discussion waters through the end of the week. Over the north-central waters, 8 to 9 ft mixed northerly swells will spread south-southwest through the remainder of the week, covering the waters from 15N to 25N to the west of 120W-125W by Thu. This swell will decrease below 8 ft by late Sat. $$ Latto