000
AXPZ20 KNHC 132214
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2141 UTC Tue Feb 13 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A stationary front extends
across the western half of the Gulf of Mexico, reaching into the
west portion of the Bay of Campeche. High pressure ridging 
southward across eastern Mexico and the adjacent waters, to the 
east of the Sierra Madre Oriental range, is supporting gale force
winds offshore and across the Gulf of Tehuantepec. The gale 
force winds will likely diminish Thu evening, with fresh to near
gale winds pulsing thereafter.

Gulf of Papagayo Gale Warning: Fresh to near gale force offshore
winds will expanded in coverage and increase tonight to gale
force winds. Winds will decrease to near gale Wed evening only to
increase again to gale Wed night. Gale force winds will contintue 
thereafter until Thu evening. Downstream seas will build to 8-11
ft late this evening through Thu evening.

Please refer to the East Pacific High Seas Forecast under 
AWIPS/WMO headers HSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC for more details on both
gale warnings.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A surface trough extends from Costa Rica near 10N83W to 03N90W 
to 03N97W. The ITCZ axis continues from 03N97W to 10N125W to 
08N135W to 09N140W. Scattered moderate convection is from 08N to
11N between 110W and 117W. 

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section above for more details 
on a gale warning in the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

Light and variable winds and seas of 2 ft or less will then 
prevail across the Gulf of California through mid-week, becoming 
northerly and increasing to moderate to fresh by the end of the 
week as the pressure gradient tightens across the region.

Elsewhere across the open Pacific offshore waters of Mexico,
light to moderate winds will prevail through the week, increasing
to near fresh offshore of Cabo Corrientes by the end of the week.
Seas will mainly be 4-6 ft in mixed southwest and northwest
swell. 

An inverted trough may lift northward across the offshore waters
of Baja California by mid-week, with weak low pressure possibly
and briefly developing along it.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Please see the Special Features section above for more details 
on a developing gale warning in the Gulf of Papagayo.

For the Gulf of Panama, fresh to strong northerly winds will
continue to extend southward along the Azuero Peninsula with a
locally tight pressure gradient. These winds will persist 
through early Fri, even approaching 30 kt near the Azuero 
Peninsula late tonight and again overnight Wed night.

Elsewhere, gentle to moderate offshore flow will prevail north 
of 09N, and light to gentle south-southwest winds will generally
prevail south of 09N.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Over the NW corner, 8 to 9 ft NW swells will spread south from 
30N to 19N between 125W and 135W, from present through Thu 
evening. 

A surface trough is analyzed from 18N124W to 11N128W. Associated
scattered moderate convection is from 11N to 20N between 117W 
and 126W. Winds near the trough are currently moderate to fresh, 
however, trades to the west of the trough will increase by the 
end of the week, building fresh seas to around 8 ft as the 
pressure gradient tightens between building high pressure north 
of the area, and the troughing. 

$$ Formosa