000
AXPZ20 KNHC 120913
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
915 UTC Mon Feb 12 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Light and variable offshore 
winds currently prevail across the Gulf of Tehuantepec along with 
seas of 3-5 ft in mixed SW and NW swell. A cold front is moving
through the western Gulf of Mexico north of the area while high
pressure ridging is pushing southward and to the east of the 
Sierra Madre Oriental range. Winds will become northerly and
increase to fresh to strong in the Gulf of Tehuantepec offshore
waters by late morning, then will continue to rapidly increase to
minimal gale force this afternoon. Gale force northerly winds 
will then persist, with the strongest winds to 40 kt expected at 
night starting Tue night. The gale force winds will likely 
finally diminish early Thu.

Please refer to the East Pacific High Seas Forecast under 
AWIPS/WMO headers HSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC for more details on this 
gale warning.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A surface trough extends from the Pacific coast of Colombia near
04N77W to 06N85W to 05N108W. The ITCZ continues from 05N108W to
07N120W to 08N140W. No significant convection is noted near the 
axis.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section above for more details 
on a developing gale warning in the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

Weak low pressure is southwest of southern California with a 
trough extending south of 30N. This is producing mainly light to 
moderate W to NW winds across the Baja offshore waters, which 
should generally continue through the week. Seas are in the
process of building to 4-7 ft in NW swell offshore of Baja 
California Norte which will continue through mid week. An 
inverted trough may lift northward across the offshore waters of 
Baja California by mid week with weak low pressure possibly 
developing along it.

For the Gulf of California, a nearly stationary trough extends 
from SW Arizona to Baja California Norte. Fresh to strong 
southwest winds are developing within about 60 nm southeast of 
the trough in the northern Gulf of California. These winds will 
persist today, diminishing early Tue. The pressure gradient will
tighten across the region by the end of the week, with fresh to 
strong northerly flow developing in the northern Gulf of 
California by Thu night, spreading southward across the majority 
of the Gulf into early next week.

Light to moderate N to NE winds prevail across the offshore 
waters from Cabo San Lucas to the Manzanillo, and are light and 
variable between Manzanillo and Tehuantepec. Little significant 
change is expected there for the next few days, except winds may
increase to fresh near Cabo Corrientes by the end of the week as
the pressure gradient tightens.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

For the Gulf of Papagayo, nocturnal winds will pulse to fresh to
strong each night through the week. The coverage of these winds
will expand today through Tue, approaching near gale force by 
Wed and pulsing to near gale force at night through the end of 
the week.

For the Gulf of Panama, moderate to fresh northerly winds will 
continue and extend S along the Azuero Peninsula to around 06N 
today, then will increase to fresh to strong tonight as the 
local pressure gradient tightens. Fresh to strong winds will then
persist through early Fri, even approaching 30 kt near the Azuero
Peninsula Wed night.

Elsewhere, gentle to moderate offshore flow will prevail N of 
09N, and light to gentle S to SW winds will generally prevail S 
of 09N.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Deep layer low pressure persisting west of the area near 31N144W  
continues to support widely scattered showers and isolated 
thunderstorms north of the convergence zone to around 26N and
west of 128W. The pressure gradient between the low pressure and
strong high pressure well north of the area is maintaining east 
to southeast moderate to fresh winds across this same area. 

A surface trough is analyzed from 17N117W to 08N120W. Associated
scattered moderate convection is within an area bounded by
17N122W to 15N110W to 11N111W to 12N127W to 17N122W. Winds near
the trough are currently moderate to fresh, however, trades to
the west of the trough will increase by the end of the week 
building fresh seas to around 8 ft as the pressure gradient 
tightens between building high pressure north of the area, and 
the troughing.

Fresh to strong northerly flow is also noted along the coast of 
California to southwest of Point Conception. While these winds
are not expected to extend south of 30N, associated fresh northerly
swell of 8-10 ft will propagate over the region north of 22N and
west of 121W through mid week, eventually mixing with components
of the NW swell.

$$
Lewitsky