000
AXPZ20 KNHC 112212
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sun Feb 11 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Light and variable winds 
currently prevail across the Gulf of Tehuantepec and are 
expected to become onshore later this afternoon. Seas of 3-5 ft 
seas in mixed SW and NW swell prevail. Little change is expected 
through early Mon. Thereafter, a cold front moving across the NW 
Gulf of Mexico this afternoon will reach the SW Gulf and W Bay 
of Campeche Mon morning, with high pressure ridging southward 
and to the east of the Sierra Madre Oriental range. Winds will 
become northerly and increase to fresh to strong by early Mon 
afternoon across the Gulf of Tehuantpec, then will rapidly 
increase to minimal gale force by early Mon evening. Gale force 
northerly winds will then persist, with the strongest winds to 
40 kt expected at night starting Tue night. The gale force winds 
will likely finally diminish either late Thu night or early Fri.

Please refer to the East Pacific High Seas Forecast under 
AWIPS/WMO headers HSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC for more details on this 
gale warning.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A surface trough extends from low pressure over NW Colombia near 
08.5N74.5W TO 05N91W TO 05.5N98. The ITCZ continues from 
05.5N98W TO 07.5N124W to beyond 07N140W. No significant 
convection is noted near the axis.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A weak cold front has stalled across the far northern Gulf of 
California along about 30N this afternoon, and continues to weak 
low pressure offshore of southern California near 33.5N118W. 
This is producing mainly light to moderate W to NW winds across 
the Baja offshore waters, which should generally continue 
through the week. Seas are mainly 4-6 ft but will build to 5-8 
ft in NW swell offshore of Baja California Norte through the 
early part of the week. An inverted trough may lift northward 
across the offshore waters of Baja California by the middle 
through the end of next week with weak low pressure possibly 
developing along it.

Strong NW to N winds prevail across the far northern Gulf of 
California, to the N of the cold front along 30N. Strong winds 
across this small area overnight have been restricted seas to 7 
ft or less due to limited fetch and duration. Winds will 
continue to diminish tonight. A trough will then rotate into the 
far NW Gulf of California by early Mon where it will linger 
through Tue morning with fresh S to SW winds within 60 nm SE of 
it.

Light to moderate N to NE winds prevail across the offshore 
waters from Cabo San Lucas to the Manzanillo this afternoon, and 
are light and variable between Manzanillo and Tehuantepec. 
Little significant change expected for the next few days.

Please see the Special Features section above for more details 
on a developing gale warning in the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

For the Gulf of Papagayo, nocturnal winds will pulse to fresh to
strong each night through the week. After a brief decrease in 
coverage of fresh to strong winds this afternoon, the winds will
increase in coverage over the Gulf of Papagayo once again for 
Mon and Tue, approaching near gale force by Wed and pulsing 
to near gale force at night through the end of next week.

For the Gulf of Panama, moderate N winds will continue and 
extend S along the Azuero Peninsula to around 06N through Mon. 
early this morning. Winds will gradually increase across this 
area Mon afternoon and become fresh to strong Mon night through 
early next week as the local pressure gradient tightens.

Elsewhere, gentle to moderate offshore flow will prevail N of 
09N, and light to gentle S to SW winds will generally prevail S 
of 09N.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Deep layer low pressure persisting west of the area, and NE of 
the big island of Hawaii, is supporting scattered showers and 
thunderstorms west of 136W between 13N and 20N. The gradient 
between the low pressure and strong high pressure well north of 
the area is maintaining east to southeast moderate to fresh 
winds across the region west of 130W. Longer period NW swell of 
7-9 ft will continue to propagate through the region north of 
10N and west of 125W through the middle of the week, mixing with 
shorter period easterly and southeasterly wind waves.

Fresh to strong northerly flow is also noted along the coast of 
California. While this is not expected to move south of 30N, 
associated northerly swell producing seas of 8-10 ft will 
propagate over the region north of 28N between 120W and 130W 
through the early part of the week, eventually mixing with 
components of the NW swell. 

$$
Stripling