000 AXPZ20 KNHC 110906 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 906 UTC Sun Feb 11 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of California Gale Warning: Strong to minimal gale force winds funneling through a pass between Isla San Luis and Isla El Muerto in the northern Gulf of California are diminishing as low pressure and an attendant trough in the vicinity weaken. Seas have been restricted to 7 ft or less due to limited fetch and duration. Winds will continue to diminish, and will veer to the NW-N behind a cold front with a brief surge of fresh to strong northerly flow N of 29.5N. The cold front will dissipate through the afternoon with winds behind it also diminishing. A trough will then rotate into the far NW Gulf of California by early Mon where it will linger through Tue morning with fresh to near gale force S-SW winds within 60 nm SE of it. Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Light and variable winds currently prevail in the Gulf of Tehuantepec area, offshore at night, and onshore during the day, with 3-5 ft seas in mixed SW and NW swell. Little change is expected through early Mon. Thereafter, a cold front will move across the western Gulf of Mexico toward the region while high pressure ridges southward east of the Sierra Madre Oriental range. Winds will become northerly and increase to fresh to strong by early Mon afternoon, then will rapidly increase to minimal gale force by early Mon evening. Gale force northerly winds will then persist, with the strongest winds to 40 kt expected at night starting Tue night. The gale force winds will likely finally diminish either late Thu night or early Fri. Please refer to the East Pacific High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC for more details on both gale warnings. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from low pressure over NW Colombia near 06N76W to 03N80W to 05N90W to 05N100W. The intertropical convergence zone continues from 05N100W to 06N120W to 08N140W. No significant convection is noted. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for more details on a gale warning in the Gulf of California and on a gale warning in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Elsewhere, mainly light to moderate winds prevail which should continue through the week. Seas are mainly 4-6 ft but will build to 5-8 ft in NW swell offshore of Baja California Norte through the early part of the week. An inverted trough may lift northward across the zones offshore of Baja California by the middle through the end of next week with weak low pressure possibly developing along it. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... For the Gulf of Papagayo, nocturnal winds will pulse to fresh to strong each night through the week. After a brief decrease in coverage of fresh to strong winds this afternoon, the winds will increase in coverage over the Gulf of Papagayo once again for Mon and Tue, approaching minimal gale force by Wed and pulsing around minimal gale force through the end of next week. For the Gulf of Panama, pulsing moderate to fresh N winds will continue including near the Azuero Peninsula through early this morning. These conditions will diminish return and increase to fresh to strong Mon night through early next week as the local pressure gradient tightens. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate offshore flow will prevail N of 09N, and light to gentle S to SW winds will generally prevail S of 09N. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Deep layer low pressure west of the area near Hawaii is supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms west of 130W. The gradient between the low pressure and strong high pressure well north of the area is maintaining east to southeast moderate to fresh winds across the region west of 130W. Longer period NW swell of 7-9 ft will continue to propagate through the region north of 10N and west of 125W through the middle of the week, mixing with shorter period easterly and southeasterly wind waves. Fresh to strong northerly flow is also noted along the coast of California. While this is not expected move south of 30N, associated northerly swell in excess of 8-10 ft will propagate over the region north of 28N between 120W and 130W through the early part of the week, eventually mixing with components of the NW swell. $$ Lewitsky