000 AXPZ20 KNHC 110310 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 310 UTC Sun Feb 11 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of California Gale Warning: Deepening low pressure over the southwest United States is ushering in a cooler airmass off the Pacific. This is supporting strong to minimal gale force winds in the northern Gulf of California from 29.5N to 30.5N as the winds get funneled through a pass between Isla San Luis and Isla El Muerto. Seas will be limited to 6 ft or less due to limited fetch and duration. Winds will diminish below gale force by sunrise Sun and will veer to the NW-N behind a cold front. The cold front will dissipate through Sun afternoon. A trough will then rotate into the far NW Gulf of California by early Mon where it will linger through Tue morning with fresh to near gale force S-SW winds within 60 nm SE of it. Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Light and variable winds currently prevail in the Gulf of Tehuantepec area, offshore at night, and onshore during the day, with 3-5 ft seas in mixed SW and NW swell. Little change is expected through early Mon. Thereafter, a cold front will move across the western Gulf of Mexico toward the region while high pressure ridges southward east of the Sierra Madre Oriental range. Winds will become northerly and increase to fresh to strong by early Mon afternoon, then will rapidly increase to minimal gale force by early Mon evening. Gale force northerly winds will then persist, with the strongest winds to 40 kt expected at night starting Tue night. The gale force winds will likely finally diminish either late Thu night or early Fri. Please refer to the East Pacific High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC for more details on both gale warnings. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from low pressure near 05N75W to 09N86W to 06N98W. The intertropical convergence zone continues from 09N86W to 06N120W to 08N140W. No significant convection is noted. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for more details on a gale warning in the Gulf of California and on a gale warning in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Elsewhere, mainly light to moderate winds prevail which should continue through next week. Seas are mainly 4-6 ft but will build to 5-7 ft in NW swell offshore of Baja California Norte through the early part of the upcoming week. An inverted trough may lift northward across the zones offshore of Baja California by the middle through the end of next week with weak low pressure possibly developing along it. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... For the Gulf of Papagayo, nocturnal winds will pulse to fresh to strong each night through early next week. After a brief decrease in coverage of fresh to strong winds Sun, the winds will increase in coverage over the Gulf of Papagayo once again for Mon and Tue, approaching minimal gale force by Wed and pulsing through the end of next week. For the Gulf of Panama, pulsing moderate to fresh N winds will continue including near the Azuero Peninsula through early Sun morning. These conditions will diminish return and increase to fresh to strong Mon night through early next week as the local pressure gradient tightens. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate offshore flow will prevail N of 09N, and light to gentle S to SW winds will generally prevail S of 09N. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Deep layer low pressure west of the area near Hawaii is supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms west of 130W. The gradient between the low pressure and strong high pressure well north of the area is maintaining east to southeast moderate to fresh winds across the region west of 130W. Longer period NW swell of 7-9 ft will continue to propagate through the region north of 10N and west of 125W through the middle of the week mixing with shorter period easterly and southeasterly wind waves. Fresh to strong northerly flow is also noted along the coast of California, While this is not expected move south of 30N, associated northerly swell in excess of 8-10 ft will propagate over the region north of 28N between 120W and 130W through early next week, eventually mixing with components of the NW swell. $$ Lewitsky