000
AXPZ20 KNHC 101600
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1600 UTC Sat Feb 10 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A surface trough extends from 08N83W to 06N95W. The intertropical
convergence zone continues from 06N95W to beyond 05N140W. No 
significant convection is noted.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Deepening low pressure over the southwest United States through 
today will usher in a cooler airmass off the Pacific and support 
fresh to strong SW to W gap winds across Baja California Norte 
into the far northern Gulf of California, but with seas limited 
to 6 ft or less due to limited fetch and duration. Winds will 
become NW-N at fresh to strong briefly behind the front by early 
Sun, diminishing by Sun afternoon as the low pressure weakens. 
Similar conditions will develop in the northern Gulf Mon 
afternoon ahead of another developing cold front.

Elsewhere, the tightening gradient will also support increased
winds off Baja California Norte by late today, followed by seas 
to 8 to 10 ft in NW swell early next week. An upper level trough
extending from N central Mexico to across Baja California Sur is
digging southward and supporting scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms from 10N to 14N between 115W to 125W. 

Looking ahead in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, another round of gale 
force winds is possible starting Mon night as a cold front moves 
across the western Gulf of Mexico into the region. Gales may then
pulse through at least Wed night.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

For the Gulf of Papagayo, nocturnal winds will pulse to fresh to
strong each night through early next week. After a brief 
decrease in coverage of fresh to strong winds Sun, the winds will
increase in coverage over the Gulf of Papagayo once again for 
Mon and Tue, approaching minimal gale force by Wed and pulsing
through the end of next week.

For the Gulf of Panama, pulsing N winds to fresh will continue 
including near the Azuero Peninsula through early morning. These
conditions will return Mon night into early Tue, increasing to 
fresh to strong Tue night into early Wed.

Elsewhere, gentle to moderate offshore flow will prevail N of 
09N, and light to gentle S to SW winds will generally prevail S 
of 09N.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

The pressure gradient between high pressure N of 30N and lower 
pressure associated with the convergence zone will support 
moderate trade winds during the next several days. On Sun, a 
batch of NW swell of 8-9 ft will cross S of 30N, and will reach 
as far S as 27N and as far W as 130W by Mon morning, gradually 
subsiding through Wed morning.

$$
Christensen