000
AXPZ20 KNHC 092205
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2204 UTC Fri Feb 9 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A surface trough extends from 10N85W to 06N95W. The intertropical
convergence zone axis continues from 06N95W to 09N140W. No 
significant convection is noted.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

For the Gulf of Tehuantepec, strong gap winds into the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec are diminishing rapidly as high pressure north of 
the region weakens. Associated seas which were reaching as high 
as 13 ft early this morning in the region are subsiding. Seas as 
high as 9 ft will persist into tonight well offshore due to 
lingering NE swell, but this should be subsiding below 8 ft 
through morning. Looking ahead, another round of gale force winds
is possible starting Mon night as a cold front moves across the 
western Gulf of Mexico into the region.

Farther north, deepening low pressure over the southwest United 
States through Sat will usher in a cooler airmass off the Pacific
and support fresh to strong SW to W gap winds across Baja 
California Norte into the far northern Gulf of California, but
with seas limited to 6 ft or less due to limited fetch and
duration. This will diminish going into early next week as the
low pressure weakens.

Elsewhere, the tightening gradient will also support increased
winds off Baja California Norte by late Sat, followed by seas to
8 to 10 ft in NW swell early next week. A pair of weakening 
upper level lows over the Baja California peninsula with an upper
trough extending SE are supporting scattered showers and 
isolated thunderstorms over the offshore waters from Cabo 
Corrientes to south of the Revillagigedo Islands.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Gulf of Papagayo: Nocturnal winds will pulse to fresh to strong 
each night through early next week. Areal coverage of the gap 
winds near the Gulf of Papagayo have increased and are allowing 
the wind-generated seas to propagate further downwind from its 
source region, merging with the seas downwind from the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec through Sat. After a brief decrease in coverage of 
fresh to strong winds Sun, the winds will increase in coverage 
over the Gulf of Papagayo once again for Mon and Tue.

Elsewhere, gentle to moderate offshore flow will prevail N of 
09N, and light to gentle S to SW winds will generally prevail S 
of 09N, except pulsing N winds to fresh downwind of the Gulf of
Panama and near the Azuero Peninsula through Sat morning.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

The pressure gradient between high pressure N of 30N and lower 
pressure associated with the convergence zone will support 
moderate trade winds during the next several days. On Sun, a 
batch of NW swell of 8-9 ft will cross SE of 30N, and will 
reach as far S as 27N and as far W as 130W by Mon morning.

$$
Christensen