000 AXPZ20 KNHC 081541 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1526 UTC Thu Feb 8 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning...The pressure gradient across the Isthmus of Tehuantepec is tightening today as high pressure builds southward into southern Mexico behind a cold front in the western Gulf of Mexico. Gale force gap winds are expected over the Gulf of Tehuantepec for about 24 hours starting this morning, peaking by early Fri with seas to 13-15 ft. The gale will end by sunrise Fri. Winds over the Gulf will become light and variable by Sat afternoon. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 09N80W to 04N96W. The ITCZ continues from 04N96W to 06N130W to 09N140W. No significant convection is noted across the basin along the convergence zone. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A weak high pressure ridge prevails across the area anchored by a surface high located north of the area. The pressure gradient along and offshore of the Baja California peninsula is producing gentle to moderate NW winds, with seas generally 5 to 7 ft. A fairly quiet pattern should persist through Sat. NW swell of 7-8 ft will reach the offshore waters off Baja California Norte Sun through Mon. Gulf of California: Gentle to moderate winds and 2-4 ft seas are expected through early Fri. A low pressure trough will develop over the Baja Peninsula on Fri and Sat, and S to SW winds E of the trough N of 29N will strengthen to fresh to strong on Sat in advance of an approaching cold front. Winds will shift to NW behind the front Sun and will then decrease to below 20 kt Sun night. Elsewhere, a weakening upper low near 22N110W is supporting scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the offshore waters from Cabo Corrientes to Cabo San Lucas. This activity will likely continue over the next 24 hours. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Nocturnal winds will pulse to fresh to strong each night through the weekend. Areal coverage of gap winds near the Gulf of Papagayo will increase Thu night and Fri morning and allow the wind-generated seas to propagate further downwind from its source region, merging with the seas downwind from the Gulf of Tehuantepec Fri and Sat. After a brief decrease in coverage of strong winds Sun, the winds will increase in coverage over the gulf of Papagayo once again for Mon and Tue. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate offshore flow will prevail north of 09N, and light to gentle S to SW winds will generally prevail S of 09N through Fri night. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A weakening surface trough extends from 23N124W to 18N124W. This trough is void of deep convection. The pressure gradient between high pressure N of 30N and lower pressure associated with the convergence zone will support moderate trade winds during the next several days. The exception will be fresh to locally strong southerly winds expected to develop W of 135W and N of 18N through Fri, associated with an area of low pressure developing W of 140W. Seas will be 7 to 9 ft in western waters through late Fri associated with the stronger winds. $$ Latto